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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.
The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.
Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.
Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.
The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.
BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
Banxico hiked rates to a record 8.50%, but the pace of tightening will slow over the next few meetings.
A struggling economy and peaking inflation has allowed the Bank to dial-back its hawkish language.
The near-term policy outlook, however, is still uncertain, dependent on global conditions and the Fed.
Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...
...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.
Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.
Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening...
...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing.
Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4.
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly...
...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week.
Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed.
Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain.
The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data.
Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache.
Inflationary pressures remain elevated in Mexico, but the headline rate will probably peak soon.
Banxico minutes emphasize that policymakers are determined to bring down inflation in H2.
Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly; the near-term outlook remains challenging, due to strong demand.
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