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Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening...
...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing.
Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4.
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly...
...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week.
Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed.
Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain.
The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data.
Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache.
Inflationary pressures remain elevated in Mexico, but the headline rate will probably peak soon.
Banxico minutes emphasize that policymakers are determined to bring down inflation in H2.
Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly; the near-term outlook remains challenging, due to strong demand.
Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail
Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro
Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears
Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.
The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.
Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.
Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist.
Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August.
Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable.
Banxico delivers a bold 75bp rate hike, and leaves the door wide open for more during the second half.
Inflation continued to rise in Q2, darkening the economic outlook over the next few months.
Banxico will hike more than the Board and AMLO would have allowed under normal conditions.
Banxico likely will accelerate its pace of tightening tomorrow, and will keep the door open for more hikes.
The inflation picture continues to deteriorate, due mainly to challenging external conditions.
Risk of a more frontloaded Fed hiking cycle will keep Mexican policymakers on a tightening path.
The COPOM eased the pace of tightening, but has left the door open to further hikes in Q3.
The deteriorating external inflation outlook has been forcing the Board to tweak its plans since May.
We now expect a final rate hike in August to anchor inflation expectations, if external conditions improve.
Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.
The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.
Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.
Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign.
Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky.
The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening.
Inflation slows at the margin in BraMex, but underlying pressures remain high and upside risks abound.
Chile’s inflation continues to head north, driven by a resilient domestic demand and external shocks.
The BCCh will continue to hike rates in Q3, but at a slower pace; inflation will start to edge down soon.
Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.
Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.
The Mexican economy performed strongly in Q1, but activity remains well below pre-crisis levels.
The outlook for the rest of 2022 is challenging, pushing inflation gradually down from Q3 onwards.
Banxico strengthened its hawkish tone at its last policy Minutes, but it will have to ease it soon.
Inflation remains a headache for policymakers, but conditions likely will improve at the margin in Q3.
Food inflation remains a key upside risk, forcing governments to implement unconventional steps.
This will probably help in the near term, but will slow the disinflation trend next year.
Rising export prices continue to support growth, but they are also driving higher-than-expected inflation.
Global inflation pressures from food and energy will keep restrictive bias on monetary policy.
Most countries will continue to tighten, despite the absence of domestic demand-driven inflation.
Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.
Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.
Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.
Retail sales in Brazil rebounded in Q1, despite high inflation and tighter financial conditions...
...The reopening and further fiscal support have driven the recovery, but momentum will ease soon.
The real income squeeze and further interest rate hikes will hurt, but consumption won't collapse.
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