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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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policymakers

25 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Headline Inflation in Mexico will Slow Gradually in H2, Despite July's Uptick

Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening... 

...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing. 

Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 July 2022 Colombia's Near-Term Outlook Has Worsened, the COP Feels the Pain

Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.

Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.

A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 July 2022 Chile's BCCh is Playing Harder, but Inflation Risks Continue to Mount

The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly... 

...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week. 

Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 July 2022 LatAm CBs Likely will Continue to Hike in Q3, but Urgency will Ease

Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain. 

The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data. 

Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 July 2022 Inflation Remains a Headache for Banxico, but it Will Peak Soon

Inflationary pressures remain elevated in Mexico, but the headline rate will probably peak soon.

Banxico minutes emphasize that policymakers are determined to bring down inflation in H2.

Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly; the near-term outlook remains challenging, due to strong demand.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 July 2022 Currencies Hit by Global Recession Fears

Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail

Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro

Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2022 Mexico's Trade Deficit Sank Further, due Mainly to High Oil Prices

Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.

The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.

Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 June 2022 Inflation Pressures Ease a Bit in Brazil; Mexico's IGAE Rebounds

Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist. 

Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August. 

Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 June 2022 Banxico Delivers a Record 75bp Rate Hike, and More is in the Pipeline

Banxico delivers a bold 75bp rate hike, and leaves the door wide open for more during the second half.

Inflation continued to rise in Q2, darkening the economic outlook over the next few months.

Banxico will hike more than the Board and AMLO would have allowed under normal conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 June 2022 Banxico Likely will Increase the Pace of Tightening this Week

Banxico likely will accelerate its pace of tightening tomorrow, and will keep the door open for more hikes.

The inflation picture continues to deteriorate, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

Risk of a more frontloaded Fed hiking cycle will keep Mexican policymakers on a tightening path.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 June 2022 The COPOM will Hike Further in Q3, to Rule on Inflation Expectations

The COPOM eased the pace of tightening, but has left the door open to further hikes in Q3.

The deteriorating external inflation outlook has been forcing the Board to tweak its plans since May.

We now expect a final rate hike in August to anchor inflation expectations, if external conditions improve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 June 2022 Peru's BCRP to Hike Further in Q3, Colombia's Election is Too Call

Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.

The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.

Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 June 2022 Headline Inflation is Peaking in BraMex

Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign. 

Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky. 

The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 June 2022 Inflation Continues to be a Pain to Policymakers, but It is Peaking

Inflation slows at the margin in BraMex, but underlying pressures remain high and upside risks abound.

Chile’s inflation continues to head north, driven by a resilient domestic demand and external shocks.

The BCCh will continue to hike rates in Q3, but at a slower pace; inflation will start to edge down soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 June 2022 Colombia's Inflation Remains a Headache, Despite Easing in May

Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.

Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 May 2022 Mexico's Recent Economic Strength Likely will Falter Soon

The Mexican economy performed strongly in Q1, but activity remains well below pre-crisis levels.

The outlook for the rest of 2022 is challenging, pushing inflation gradually down from Q3 onwards.

Banxico strengthened its hawkish tone at its last policy Minutes, but it will have to ease it soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 May 2022 Orthodox and Unconventional Measures to Fight Sticky Inflation

Inflation remains a headache for policymakers, but conditions likely will improve at the margin in Q3.

Food inflation remains a key upside risk, forcing governments to implement unconventional steps.

This will probably help in the near term, but will slow the disinflation trend next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 May 2022 LatAm Central Banks in a Big Dilemma

Rising export prices continue to support growth, but they are also driving higher-than-expected inflation.

Global inflation pressures from food and energy will keep restrictive bias on monetary policy.

Most countries will continue to tighten, despite the absence of domestic demand-driven inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 May 2022 Banxico Hikes by Another 50bp, but Rates are Nowhere Near the Peak Yet

Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.

Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.

Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 May 2022 The Recovery in Households' Spending in Brazil Will Slow Soon

Retail sales in Brazil rebounded in Q1, despite high inflation and tighter financial conditions...

...The reopening and further fiscal support have driven the recovery, but momentum will ease soon.

The real income squeeze and further interest rate hikes will hurt, but consumption won't collapse.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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