The Argentinian economy is resilient, but the survey data tell a clear story of slowing growth in H1.
Households have been able to muddle through this year, but inflation is fast approaching 100%.
Deteriorating fundamentals suggest that the ruling coalition will lose the presidency in 2023.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
- ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
- Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
- Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
- Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
- Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
- ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
- Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
- Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
- The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
