Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

mining

27 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor July IGAE Showed a Resilient Mexican Economy, but Not for Long

  • Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
  • ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
  • Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Global Inflation Risks Have Spooked LatAm Markets

  • Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
  • Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
  • Chile — Political questions not abating

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Manufacturing Continues to Shoulder the Industrial Recovery

  • Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
  • Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
  • The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile's Economy Struggles Ahead of the Constitutional Referendum

  • Chile’s labour market is under renewed strain and survey data point to a challenging H2...
  • ...High inflation, tighter financial conditions, increased interest rates, and elevated political risks are drags.
  • Chileans will vote on Sunday on a new constitution, but uncertainty will persist regardless.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Resilient Economic Activity in Peru, Despite Political Disruption

The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.

Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.

External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2022 Peru's Economic Activity Rebounded in May, but it Likely will Stall Soon

Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...

...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.

Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2022 Manufacturing Remains a Key Support for GDP Growth in Mexico

Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.

Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.

AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 July 2022 May Industrial Data Confirm that Brazil's Recovery Remains on Track

Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere. 

Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers. 

The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 July 2022 Argentina's Never-ending Crisis

Alberto Fernández cedes the management of the Argentine economy to Kirchnerism; terrible news. 

The new finance minister will likely double down on unorthodox measures; the outlook will worsen. 

Chile’s government presents an ambitious, but well telegraphed, fiscal reform plan; no concerns, for now. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 July 2022 The Party is Likely Over in Chile, and the Hangover will be Ugly and Long

High inflation, political noise, and worsening external conditions are hitting Chile’s economic prospects.

It is no surprise that President Boric’s approval is on the floor; pessimism and dissatisfaction are rising.

The labour market remains solid, though, but survey data are consistent with employment growth slowing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 June 2022 Inflation Pressures Ease a Bit in Brazil; Mexico's IGAE Rebounds

Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist. 

Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August. 

Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 June 2022 Left-Wing Presidents Takes Over in the Region

Colombia — Petro becomes the first leftist president

Mexico — AMLO’s party seems unstoppable

Chile — A tax reform proposal will be presented

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 June 2022 Deteriorating Global Conditions Weigh on LatAm Markets

Brazil — Hurt by increased external noise

Colombia — Political risk is the near-term driver

Peru — Global concerns drag equities lower

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 June 2022 Retail Activity Remains Sturdy in Brazil, Mexican IP is still Recovering

Brazilian retailers enjoyed a solid start to Q2, but momentum is already easing in some components.

The Mexican industrial sector remains solid, but the outlook has deteriorated, due mainly to high inflation.

The plunge in China’s PMIs and lingering external shocks point to potential trouble ahead.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2022 High Political Risk Limits the FX Rebound

Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage

Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook

Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 June 2022 April's Brisk Retail Numbers in Chile Mask a Falling Underlying Trend

Retail sales in Chile remained resilient in April, but the trend is falling; fundamentals are deteriorating.

Manufacturing improved at the margin in early Q2, but mining activity remains a key drag.

The job market recovery continued in April, but conditions are worsening, pointing to a tough H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 May 2022 Chile's GDP Contracted Sharply in Q1, Payback After a Solid 2021

Chile’s recovery has stalled, due to plunging domestic demand; the upturn will resume, but risks remain.

The constitutional process is entering the final phase; the most controversial issues have been ditched...

...But uncertainty persists, and voters are disenchanted; the process likely will end up being a disaster.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 May 2022 Mexico's Industrial Upturn Continued in Q1, but the Outlook has Darkened

Mexico’s total industrial output contributed to GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook is overcast.

High inflation, deteriorating global supply conditions, and increased domestic uncertainty, remain drags.

Argentina’s inflation nightmare continues, despite the government’s efforts to put a lid on the uptrend.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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