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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.
Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...
...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.
Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.
Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.
Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.
AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.
Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere.
Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers.
The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Alberto Fernández cedes the management of the Argentine economy to Kirchnerism; terrible news.
The new finance minister will likely double down on unorthodox measures; the outlook will worsen.
Chile’s government presents an ambitious, but well telegraphed, fiscal reform plan; no concerns, for now.
High inflation, political noise, and worsening external conditions are hitting Chile’s economic prospects.
It is no surprise that President Boric’s approval is on the floor; pessimism and dissatisfaction are rising.
The labour market remains solid, though, but survey data are consistent with employment growth slowing.
Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist.
Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August.
Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable.
Colombia — Petro becomes the first leftist president
Mexico — AMLO’s party seems unstoppable
Chile — A tax reform proposal will be presented
Brazil — Hurt by increased external noise
Colombia — Political risk is the near-term driver
Peru — Global concerns drag equities lower
Brazilian retailers enjoyed a solid start to Q2, but momentum is already easing in some components.
The Mexican industrial sector remains solid, but the outlook has deteriorated, due mainly to high inflation.
The plunge in China’s PMIs and lingering external shocks point to potential trouble ahead.
Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage
Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook
Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won
Retail sales in Chile remained resilient in April, but the trend is falling; fundamentals are deteriorating.
Manufacturing improved at the margin in early Q2, but mining activity remains a key drag.
The job market recovery continued in April, but conditions are worsening, pointing to a tough H2.
Chile’s recovery has stalled, due to plunging domestic demand; the upturn will resume, but risks remain.
The constitutional process is entering the final phase; the most controversial issues have been ditched...
...But uncertainty persists, and voters are disenchanted; the process likely will end up being a disaster.
Mexico’s total industrial output contributed to GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook is overcast.
High inflation, deteriorating global supply conditions, and increased domestic uncertainty, remain drags.
Argentina’s inflation nightmare continues, despite the government’s efforts to put a lid on the uptrend.
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