Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a full list of our Latin America Publications.

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25 Jan 2021 Inflation in Mexico Rose in January, the Upturn likely will be Short-lived

Data released on Friday showed that underlying inflation pressures in Mexico remain under control, despite overshooting expectations during the first half of January.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)24th Jan 2021 19:20Latin America

27 Nov 2020 Mexico's GDP Rebounded in Q3, but there is Still a Long Way to Go

Mexico's final estimate of third quarter GDP, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy rebounded in Q3 from the severe shock during lockdown in Q2, but economic output...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)26th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

30 Sept 2020 Mexico's External Accounts Continue to Improve, for Now

The improvement in Mexico's trade surplus since mid last year consolidated in Q2, albeit not for any welcome reason, as imports fell more sharply than exports on the back of...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)29th Sep 2020 20:10Latin America

14 Sept 2020 Mexico's Industrial Activity is on the Mend, but the Bigger Picture is Ugly

Economic news last week in Mexico was net positive, as industrial production rose by a solid 6.9% month-to-month, following a 17.9% rebound in June, but the bigger picture is less...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)13th Sep 2020 20:20Latin America

28 Aug 2020 Sluggish Initial Virus Response Trashed the Mexican Economy in H2

Mexican GDP plunged 17.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the final report, close to the first estimate.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)27th Aug 2020 18:30Latin America

28 July 2020 Mexico's Volatile Trade Balance, Consequences of Chile's Reform

Data released yesterday in Mexico highlighted the volatility in international trade resulting from the pandemic.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)27th Jul 2020 20:10Latin America

27 July 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil will Allow the Copom to Cut Rates in August

Data released on Friday in Brazil and recent political events helped to open the door further to a final rate cut in August. The IPCA-15--which previews the full CPI--...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)26th Jul 2020 20:10Latin America

24 July 2020 Inflation in Mexico Rose in July, but the Recession will Ease Pressures

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the upside in early Q3, but we still believe it will fall gradually in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)23rd Jul 2020 20:10Latin America

13 July 2020 Inflation in Brazil is Tame, Mexico's Industrial Recession Continues

Friday's June inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the worst of the Covid shock were still being felt at the end of the quarter.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)12th Jul 2020 20:20Latin America

7 July 2020 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3?

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been terrible. The worst of the recession seems to be over, but recent hard data have underscored the severity of the shock and made it...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)6th Jul 2020 20:20Latin America

29 June 2020 The Mexican Economy Crumbled Even Further During the Lockdown

Data released on Friday in Mexico strengthened the case for further interest rate cuts in Q3. The monthly IGAE economic indicator for April, a proxy for GDP, plunged 19.9%...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)28th Jun 2020 20:20Latin America

8 June 2020 Mexico's Survey Data are on the Mend, but a Full Recovery is Distant

Economic conditions remain challenging in Mexico, despite a modest improvement in leading indicators. The usual surveys currently are not well-suited to capture the economy's...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)7th Jun 2020 20:20Latin America

27 May 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil, A Surprising Upward Revision to Mexico's GDP

Data released yesterday in Brazil support our base case that the IPCA inflation rate will remain relatively stable over the coming months, hovering around 2%.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)26th May 2020 20:20Latin America

26 May 2020 More Traumatic Data in Mexico, the Recovery is Set to be Subpar

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the upside in April, but the underlying picture has improved rapidly over recent months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)25th May 2020 20:20Latin America

13 May 2020 Ugly Data in Mexico Continue to Set the Stage for Further Rate Cuts

More depressing economic numbers in LatAm have been released in recent days, and high frequency data continue to show a near-term bleak outlook.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)12th May 2020 20:10Latin America

24 Apr 2020 The Perfect Storm for Mexican Retailers and Consumers is Looming

The sharp decline in Mexico's leading indicators highlights the dramatic scale of the economic and financial hit from the coronavirus. High frequency data and the PMIs are the...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)23rd Apr 2020 20:10Latin America

3 Apr 2020 Markets are Stabilizing, but Incoming Data will Confirm a Deep Recession

LatAm financial and FX markets have behaved relatively well in recent sessions, thanks to the array of monetary and fiscal measures taken to counter the severe risk-off...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)2nd Apr 2020 20:10Latin America

23 Mar 2020 Plunging External Trade, Halting Domestic Demand, LatAm in Disarray

Policymakers and governments are gradually deploying major fiscal and monetary policy measures to ease the hit from Covid-19 and the related financial crisis.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)22nd Mar 2020 20:20Latin America

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