Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

metal Peru

21 Sept 2021 July Activity was Solid in the Andes, but Political Risk is the Narrative

  • July activity was firm in Peru, but the slowdown narrative remains, due to increased political risk.
  • Capex likely will suffer next year, if the government takes a misstep; a downtrend is already emerging.
  • Chile's central bank minutes set the table for further bold rate hikes, neutrality is around the corner.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Sept 2021 Argentina's Markets Rejoice as Ruling Party Loses Momentum

  • Argentina's economic outlook and markets improve as the ruling party falters in BA province vote.
  • Peru's BRCP increased interest rates last week; infla- tion rebounding on the back of the PEN sell-off.
  • The door is open to further data-dependent hikes; politics and global volatility will force the Board to act.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Aug 2021 Brazil's Retail Sector, and Mexico's Manufacturing Stalled in late Q2

Consumers' spending in Brazil ended Q2 poorly, but it will improve soon as virus restrictions ease.

Mexico's industrial production fell in June, due mainly to the continued troubles in the auto sector.

Conditions will improve in the second half of the year, but supply-side disruptions will remain a drag.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Aug 2021 Stocks Under Pressure Due to High Political Risk and Rising Inflation Pressures

Mexico — Doing well, despite many challenges

Chile — Politics and copper prices cap the upturn

Peru — Political uncertainty will remain a drag

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Aug 2021 Core Inflation is Still Rising in Mexico, due to the Reopening of the Economy

Mexico's core inflation is at cyclical highs and rising; the reopening of the economy is mostly responsible.

Inflation will stay well above Banxico's target range over H2, forcing policymakers to hike interest rates.

Fixed investment and private consumption continued to recover in Q2, the near-term outlook is positive.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Aug 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggled in Q2, but Conditions will Improve Soon

Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.

That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.

Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Aug 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but it will Hike Soon, as Inflation Bites

Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.

Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.

Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Aug 2021 Mexico's Recovery Continues, as Spending on Services Ramps Up

Mexico's economy gathered speed in Q2, thanks to solid services activity and despite one-off shocks.

Manufacturing activity has stalled, due to global supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise soon.

Further good news from Chile's retail sector and manufacturing ended Q2 on a solid footing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 July 2021 Mr Castillo's Bittersweet Speech Packs Few Punches for Markets

Left-wing Mr. Castillo is sworn in as president of Peru; the inaugural speech provokes mixed reviews...

...But the opposition will lead Congress, easing the risks of populist policies under his rule.

Brazil's labour market conditions continued to im- prove at a rapid pace in Q2, but threats remain.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2021 Political Risk Improves in the Andes

Chile — Political risk improves further

Peru — Castillo finally declared president-elect

Colombia — Duque presents a social-driven fiscal bill

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2021 Peru's Economic Activity on its Way to Pre-crisis Levels After a Poor Q1

Peru's economic recovery resumed in May, following a poor performance in the three previous months, due to the worsening of the pandemic, and increased political/ policy risk.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 July 2021 High Political Risk to Constrain the Commodity-Driven Rebound

Mexico — A pause despite an improving outlook

Colombia — Improving as social tensions ease

Chile — Political uncertainty prevails

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 June 2021 Political Risk Remains High, Despite Improvement in Some Countries

Mexico — Mid-term election results boost the outlook

Chile — Political risk improves at the margin

Peru — Castillo claims victory, but Fujimuri still fights

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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