Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

markets

22 Sept 2021 Political Risk and Inflation Fears will Continue to Take Centre Stage

  • Rising political risk continues to cloud prospects for a sustained economic rebound and capex in LatAm.
  • Argentina’s President reshuffles his cabinet, and announces measures to bring back voters.
  • Chile's Presidential candidate Boric leads the polls ahead of November's election, but the race is open.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2021 July Activity was Solid in the Andes, but Political Risk is the Narrative

  • July activity was firm in Peru, but the slowdown narrative remains, due to increased political risk.
  • Capex likely will suffer next year, if the government takes a misstep; a downtrend is already emerging.
  • Chile's central bank minutes set the table for further bold rate hikes, neutrality is around the corner.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Sept 2021 Argentina's Markets Rejoice as Ruling Party Loses Momentum

  • Argentina's economic outlook and markets improve as the ruling party falters in BA province vote.
  • Peru's BRCP increased interest rates last week; infla- tion rebounding on the back of the PEN sell-off.
  • The door is open to further data-dependent hikes; politics and global volatility will force the Board to act.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Sept 2021 Accelerating Inflation in Brazil Points to a Selic Rate Above Neutral Soon

  • Brazil's inflation surprises to the upside in August; the near-term outlook remains challenging.
  • A sharp inflation rebound supports the case for interest rates above neutral in the near term.
  • Inflation in Chile overshot expectations, again; the BCCh will deliver more tightening to tame pressures.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2021 A Modest Rebound as Political Risk Eases, but Tensions are Brewing

  • Colombian Peso — Pressures ease, for now
  • Argentinian Peso — A brewing crisis
  • Brazilian Real — Mr. Bolsonaro in the spotlight, again

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Aug 2021 Stocks Under Pressure Due to High Political Risk and Rising Inflation Pressures

Mexico — Doing well, despite many challenges

Chile — Politics and copper prices cap the upturn

Peru — Political uncertainty will remain a drag

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2021 Political Risk Improves in the Andes

Chile — Political risk improves further

Peru — Castillo finally declared president-elect

Colombia — Duque presents a social-driven fiscal bill

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2021 Peru's Economic Activity on its Way to Pre-crisis Levels After a Poor Q1

Peru's economic recovery resumed in May, following a poor performance in the three previous months, due to the worsening of the pandemic, and increased political/ policy risk.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 July 2021 Chile's Central Bank Joins the Monetary Tightening

Chile's central bank has joined the bandwagon of monetary policy normalisation that started in the region with Brazil and Brigade has expanded, more recently, to Banxico. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 July 2021 High Political Risk to Constrain the Commodity-Driven Rebound

Mexico — A pause despite an improving outlook

Colombia — Improving as social tensions ease

Chile — Political uncertainty prevails

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 July 2021 Colombia's Investment Grade Days are Over; Chile's Recovery is on Track

Colombia lost its coveted investment-grade rating
on Thursday, after Fitch became the second agency
to downgrade the country’s debt to junk status, citing concerns about the deterioration of the public finances with large fiscal deficits in 2020-to-2022, a rising government debt, and reduced confidence over the capacity of the government to credibly reduce the debt in the coming years. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2021 Improving External Account Picture thanks to Better Global Growth

External accounts in LatAm likely will continue to improve over the next few months, thanks to the global economic recovery. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 June 2021 Banxico Hikes Interest Rates, Trying to Lower Inflation Expectations

Mexican policymakers have voted by a majority to increase the main rate by 25bp to 4.25%, to counter underlying inflation pressures, as the recovery is gathering speed and external conditions are turning more challenging for EM.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 June 2021 LatAm FX Markets Under Strain as Global Conditions Turn Challenging

LatAm FX markets have been under severe strain over the last week, following slightly hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve, suggesting policymakers are now ready to talk about tapering.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 June 2021 Political Risk Remains High, Despite Improvement in Some Countries

Mexico — Mid-term election results boost the outlook

Chile — Political risk improves at the margin

Peru — Castillo claims victory, but Fujimuri still fights

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 June 2021 Mexico's Industrial Sector Under Strain due to Temporary Shocks

The May industrial production data, released on Friday, brought discouraging news about the state of the Mexican economy in the very near term, due to supply issues and temporary shocks. But we expect better news in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 June 2021 Pain in the Andes Driven by Political Uncertainty

Chile — Heightened economic and political uncertainty

Peru — Leftist Castillo close to win the election

Colombia — Social tensions easing at the margin

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 June 2021 Markets Breath a Sigh of Relief in Mexico and--Probably--in Peru

LatAm financial markets likely will rebound over the coming weeks following the result of the mid-term elections in Mexico and the presidential run-off in Peru. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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