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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Mexico’s economic activity was resilient in Q3, but this is in stark contrast to survey data.
Manufacturing and services activity are showing early signs of fatigue; 2023 will be difficult.
The current account slid to 1.6% of GDP, but FDI saved the day; we expect a gradual correction in H1.
The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.
Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.
The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.
Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.
The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.
BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.
Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk
Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag
Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.
Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...
...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.
Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.
AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.
Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere.
Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers.
The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
High and sticky inflation in the Andes is increasing the pressure on policymakers to act beyond Q3.
The steady fall in currencies, due mainly to the hawkish Fed, is making things even more complicated.
The strategy will be to act boldly now and bring the economy to a standstill, to allow rapid easing in H1.
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Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence