Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

latin america

17 Sept 2021 Brazil's Recovery Continues; Argentina's Political Mess Worsens

  • Brazil's economic upturn continued in Q3, but high inflation and tighter policy will dent the rebound soon.
  • The Argentine president's nightmare worsens as his coalition tumbles and the economy deteriorates.
  • Inflation is high, and sluggish demand, political risk and policy heterodoxy will limit the upturn.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Sept 2021 Headline Inflation Slows in Mexico, thanks to AMLO, Core is Climbing

  • Increased inflation pressures and prospects of DM policy normalisation complicate LatAm policy.
  • Inflation in Mexico slowed in August, thanks mainly to price controls, but core pressures are building up.
  • The 2022 budget proposal signals a pledge to fiscal discipline, but some of the assumptions are shaky.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Aug 2021 Brazil's Retail Sector, and Mexico's Manufacturing Stalled in late Q2

Consumers' spending in Brazil ended Q2 poorly, but it will improve soon as virus restrictions ease.

Mexico's industrial production fell in June, due mainly to the continued troubles in the auto sector.

Conditions will improve in the second half of the year, but supply-side disruptions will remain a drag.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Aug 2021 Stocks Under Pressure Due to High Political Risk and Rising Inflation Pressures

Mexico — Doing well, despite many challenges

Chile — Politics and copper prices cap the upturn

Peru — Political uncertainty will remain a drag

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Aug 2021 Core Inflation is Still Rising in Mexico, due to the Reopening of the Economy

Mexico's core inflation is at cyclical highs and rising; the reopening of the economy is mostly responsible.

Inflation will stay well above Banxico's target range over H2, forcing policymakers to hike interest rates.

Fixed investment and private consumption continued to recover in Q2, the near-term outlook is positive.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Aug 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggled in Q2, but Conditions will Improve Soon

Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.

That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.

Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Aug 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but it will Hike Soon, as Inflation Bites

Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.

Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.

Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 July 2021 Mexico's CPI Inflation is Likely to Remain Stubbornly High in H2

As we move on into the second half of the year, theMexican economy looks poised for a sustained recovery, provided both private consumption and external demand momentum is sustained in the coming months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

*June 2021 - Latin America Chartbook*

A Disrupted Rebound In H1 Due To A Surge In Covid...But The Recovery Is Now Gathering Speed

Peter BennettLatin America

16 June 2021 Andean Economies Struggled in Early Q2 Amid Domestic Headwinds

Andean economies have been struggling recently, owing to the worsening of the pandemic, rising political risk, and social unrest.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 June 2021 Mexico and Peru, Elections, Markets, and the Recovery in a Covid World

This Sunday, all eyes will be focused on the final result of the midterm elections in Mexico and the presidential run-off in Peru.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 June 2021 Political Risk Continues to Hurt Andean Currencies

Colombian Peso — Social tensions persist 

Peruvian New Sol — Neck-and-neck election 

Chilean Peso — A modest drop as copper prices stabilise

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 June 2021 Chile's Recovery Stalled in April, but Momentum will Improve Soon

Data released in recent days have confirmed that the Chilean economy struggled in early Q2, due to the worsening of the pandemic which triggered localised lockdowns and curfews. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

May 2021 - Latin America Chartbook

The Recovery Resumes As The Pandemic Eases...But The Political Noise Points To A Bumpy Near Term Outlook

Peter BennettLatin America

26 May 2021 Brazil's Inflation in May Undershot Expectations, but Threats Remain

In a relatively light week in terms of economic indicators in Brazil, the inflation numbers garnered all the attention. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

*April 2021 - Latin America Chartbook*

The Virus Is Still An Economic Drag...But Momentum Seems To Be Picking Up Again

Peter BennettLatin America

23 Apr 2021 Mexico's Labour Market Improves, Inflation Temporarily Jumps in April

Mexico's recent economic data releases confirm that conditions for a recovery in domestic demand are gradually materializing. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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