- Monetary Tightening Is Now Drawing To A Close....Inflation Is Falling And Economic Growth Is Stuttering
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation is Finally Easing, but Central Banks will be Cautious in H1
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Monetary tightening is now drawing to a close in LatAm, as inflation is finally falling.
- BanRep increased the main rate by 100bp to 12.0% last week, but said the end of the tightening is near.
- Elevated inflation will mean that policy will stay tight over H1, after January’s final 50bp.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s recovery continued to stall in Q3, due mostly to plunging domestic demand.
- Conditions will remain difficult in the near term, forcing the BCCh to cut rates early next year.
- The current account deficit has ballooned, but a correction is now underway; the risk will ease soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s President had a decent first 100 days in office, with the tax reform as a key achievement...
- ...But conflicting signals, between radicalism and orthodoxy, have hurt and will keep investors on alert.
- BanRep is likely to raise the policy interest rate further, owing to persistent price pressures.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula is yet to name his cabinet
- Mexico — AMLO’s electoral reform sparks protests
- Colombia — A mixed start to Mr. Petro’s preside
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s recovery continued in H2, but risks are tilted to the downside, due chiefly to high interest rates.
- Peru’s central bank increased interest rates last week, and left the door open to further tightening...
- ...But it will move to the sidelines soon, as inflation is finally falling, and economic activity stutters.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
The Tightening Cycle Is Likely Over In Most Of LatAm....But The Economic Outlook Is Still Difficult
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hurt by global recession fears
- Colombia — Petro’s tweets puncture the stock market
- Chile — Global woes add to political uncertainty
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Slowing GDP Growth Will Make Central Banks Uneasy....Interest Rates Will Have To Stay High For Some Time
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican Peso - Resilient, thanks to high rates
- Colombian Peso - Hurt by a less hawkish BanRep
- Brazilian Real - is an orthodox wave coming?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Inflation Pressures Are Easing At The Margin....And Economic Growth Is Slowing In Some Countries
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Economic Activity Is Showing Renewed Signs Of Fatigue...But Inflation Is Finally Edging Lower
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation is Peaking, but Central Banks aren’t Finished Yet
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
