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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.
Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...
...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.
Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening...
...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing.
Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4.
Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.
Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.
Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly...
...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week.
Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed.
Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.
Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.
The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.
Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting
Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag
Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics
Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere.
Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers.
The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
High inflation, political noise, and worsening external conditions are hitting Chile’s economic prospects.
It is no surprise that President Boric’s approval is on the floor; pessimism and dissatisfaction are rising.
The labour market remains solid, though, but survey data are consistent with employment growth slowing.
Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.
The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.
Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.
The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly.
Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative.
Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further.
Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist.
Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August.
Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable.
Banxico delivers a bold 75bp rate hike, and leaves the door wide open for more during the second half.
Inflation continued to rise in Q2, darkening the economic outlook over the next few months.
Banxico will hike more than the Board and AMLO would have allowed under normal conditions.
Banxico likely will accelerate its pace of tightening tomorrow, and will keep the door open for more hikes.
The inflation picture continues to deteriorate, due mainly to challenging external conditions.
Risk of a more frontloaded Fed hiking cycle will keep Mexican policymakers on a tightening path.
Gustavo Petro makes history after being elected Colombia's first leftist president.
A fragmented and divided Congress will cap his room for action; this will limit the market sell-off.
Mr. Petro will face tough challenges, included a deep- ly divided country, and worried business community.
Colombia’s new president will find an economy in good shape, with output well above pre-Covid levels.
The good news, however, won’t last; high inflation and tighter financial conditions are now key threats.
The new leader will have to tackle poverty, popular discontent, and long-standing structural issues.
The COPOM eased the pace of tightening, but has left the door open to further hikes in Q3.
The deteriorating external inflation outlook has been forcing the Board to tweak its plans since May.
We now expect a final rate hike in August to anchor inflation expectations, if external conditions improve.
Brazil — Hurt by increased external noise
Colombia — Political risk is the near-term driver
Peru — Global concerns drag equities lower
Brazilian retailers enjoyed a solid start to Q2, but momentum is already easing in some components.
The Mexican industrial sector remains solid, but the outlook has deteriorated, due mainly to high inflation.
The plunge in China’s PMIs and lingering external shocks point to potential trouble ahead.
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