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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

labour market

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 July 2022 Latin America Monitor High Inflation is Denting the Upturn in Mexico and Argentina

The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.

Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...

...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Headline Inflation in Mexico will Slow Gradually in H2, Despite July's Uptick

Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening... 

...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing. 

Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Economy Shows Signs of Fatigue

Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.

Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.

Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 July 2022 Colombia's Near-Term Outlook Has Worsened, the COP Feels the Pain

Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.

Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.

A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 July 2022 Chile's BCCh is Playing Harder, but Inflation Risks Continue to Mount

The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly... 

...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week. 

Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 July 2022 Brazil's Retail Sector is Resilient, and the Outlook has Improved

Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.

Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.

The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2022 Battered by Deteriorating Domestic and External Conditions

Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting

Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag

Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 July 2022 May Industrial Data Confirm that Brazil's Recovery Remains on Track

Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere. 

Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers. 

The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 July 2022 The Party is Likely Over in Chile, and the Hangover will be Ugly and Long

High inflation, political noise, and worsening external conditions are hitting Chile’s economic prospects.

It is no surprise that President Boric’s approval is on the floor; pessimism and dissatisfaction are rising.

The labour market remains solid, though, but survey data are consistent with employment growth slowing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2022 Mexico's Trade Deficit Sank Further, due Mainly to High Oil Prices

Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.

The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.

Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 June 2022 Activity Remained Resilient in H1, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly. 

Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative. 

Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 June 2022 Inflation Pressures Ease a Bit in Brazil; Mexico's IGAE Rebounds

Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist. 

Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August. 

Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 June 2022 Banxico Delivers a Record 75bp Rate Hike, and More is in the Pipeline

Banxico delivers a bold 75bp rate hike, and leaves the door wide open for more during the second half.

Inflation continued to rise in Q2, darkening the economic outlook over the next few months.

Banxico will hike more than the Board and AMLO would have allowed under normal conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 June 2022 Banxico Likely will Increase the Pace of Tightening this Week

Banxico likely will accelerate its pace of tightening tomorrow, and will keep the door open for more hikes.

The inflation picture continues to deteriorate, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

Risk of a more frontloaded Fed hiking cycle will keep Mexican policymakers on a tightening path.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 June 2022 Left-wing Candidate Petro Wins in Colombia; What Next?

Gustavo Petro makes history after being elected Colombia's first leftist president.

A fragmented and divided Congress will cap his room for action; this will limit the market sell-off.

Mr. Petro will face tough challenges, included a deep- ly divided country, and worried business community.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 June 2022 Colombia's New President will Face an Economic Downturn Soon

Colombia’s new president will find an economy in good shape, with output well above pre-Covid levels. 

The good news, however, won’t last; high inflation and tighter financial conditions are now key threats. 

The new leader will have to tackle poverty, popular discontent, and long-standing structural issues. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 June 2022 The COPOM will Hike Further in Q3, to Rule on Inflation Expectations

The COPOM eased the pace of tightening, but has left the door open to further hikes in Q3.

The deteriorating external inflation outlook has been forcing the Board to tweak its plans since May.

We now expect a final rate hike in August to anchor inflation expectations, if external conditions improve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 June 2022 Deteriorating Global Conditions Weigh on LatAm Markets

Brazil — Hurt by increased external noise

Colombia — Political risk is the near-term driver

Peru — Global concerns drag equities lower

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 June 2022 Retail Activity Remains Sturdy in Brazil, Mexican IP is still Recovering

Brazilian retailers enjoyed a solid start to Q2, but momentum is already easing in some components.

The Mexican industrial sector remains solid, but the outlook has deteriorated, due mainly to high inflation.

The plunge in China’s PMIs and lingering external shocks point to potential trouble ahead.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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