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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation.
CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices.
Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat.
The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.
Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.
June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.
Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.
Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening...
...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing.
Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4.
Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.
Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.
Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly...
...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week.
Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed.
Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.
Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.
The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.
Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere.
Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers.
The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
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