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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ipca

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 July 2022 Latin America Monitor A Disinflation Trend Emerges in Brazil, Thanks to Recent Measures

 A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...

...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.

The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, July, 2022

  • In one line: A downward trend emerges thanks to the government's measures.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, June, 2022

  • In one line: In line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, June, 2022

  • In one line: Core pressures remain elevated, despite a relatively good headline.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, May, 2022

  • In one line: Overshooting expectations, but the picture likely will improve at the margin in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 May 2022 Banxico Hikes by Another 50bp, but Rates are Nowhere Near the Peak Yet

Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.

Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.

Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, April, 2022

  • In one line: Underlying pressures remain elevated, but headline inflation is peaking.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 May 2022 The Recovery in Households' Spending in Brazil Will Slow Soon

Retail sales in Brazil rebounded in Q1, despite high inflation and tighter financial conditions...

...The reopening and further fiscal support have driven the recovery, but momentum will ease soon.

The real income squeeze and further interest rate hikes will hurt, but consumption won't collapse.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 May 2022 Brazilian Industry Supported Growth in Q1, but the Outlook is Uncertain

Brazil's industrial sector supported growth in Q1, despite an array of domestic and external shocks.

Leading indicators and survey data, particularly the PMI, suggest that the recovery will continue in Q2...

...But the outlook remains challenging on the back of still-high inflation and lingering supply issues.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 Apr 2022 Inflation Undershot Expectations in April, Modest Relief for the COPOM

Inflation in Brazil hit another two-decade high in April, due to rising commodity prices.

The COPOM will hike boldly next week, but the tightening probably will be over; inflation is peaking.

The recovery in employment is back on track in Mexico, but it will stall soon as the economy struggles.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, March

  • In one line: Inflation rocketed in March, as the effect of multiple shocks persists.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 Mar 2022 Inflation Remains Sticky in Brazil; Mexico's Recovery will Stall Soon

  • Inflation in Brazil surprised to the upside in early March, but a downtrend will emerge soon.
  • COPOM will look through the rebound in commodity prices, and will end the tightening cycle in May.
  • Mexico's economy isn't out of the woods; risks are tilted to the downside in coming quarters.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, February

  • In one line: A pause in the downtrend; conditions have deteriorated recently.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Feb 2022 February Inflation in BraMex Likely will Keep Policymakers Uneasy

  • February CPI inflation in Brazil and Mexico likely will maintain the pressure on policymakers.
  • The disinflation trend likely will resume in March, but rising global oil prices are a big threat.
  • Rising inflation expectations, and lingering core pressures, will force policymakers to hike soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA and Retail Sales, Brazil, January & December

  • In one line: Inflation pressures are easing at the margin; retail sales remain relatively resilient. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence