- In one line: On hold and on the sidelines in the near term, due to high uncertainty.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A resilient labour market in Q4, but we expect a weak H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The fight against high inflation is probably over, rate cuts likely will come soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: No signs of a pivot despite falling inflation and inflation expectations.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
- Mexico — A solid start to the year
- Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Brazil’s real GDP has risen for a fifth consecutive quarter; output is about 5% above pre-Covid level...
...But the balance of risks for 2023 is to the downside, due mainly to increased fiscal threats.
Policy uncertainty could keep interest rates high for even longer, and the global economy won’t help.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, but increased fiscal uncertainty remains a threat.
Headline inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside again in November, but the core remains sticky.
Softening demand, favourable base effects and high interest rates will push core inflation down soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s President had a decent first 100 days in office, with the tax reform as a key achievement...
- ...But conflicting signals, between radicalism and orthodoxy, have hurt and will keep investors on alert.
- BanRep is likely to raise the policy interest rate further, owing to persistent price pressures.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s recovery continued in H2, but risks are tilted to the downside, due chiefly to high interest rates.
- Peru’s central bank increased interest rates last week, and left the door open to further tightening...
- ...But it will move to the sidelines soon, as inflation is finally falling, and economic activity stutters.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Pause signalled; further tightening requires stubbornly high inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector was under pressure in August, but the near-term outlook is positive.
- Improving domestic fundamentals likely will offset the drag from deteriorating external conditions.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Colombia, with the headline rate still climbing rapidly.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Brazil is decelerating rapidly, thanks mainly to the effect of tax and tighter financial conditions.
- Leading indicators suggest that the downtrend will continue over the coming months...
- ...But upside risks remain, which will prevent the COPOM from cutting rates any time soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
- Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
- ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
- Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
- Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
- Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
