- In one line: A decent start to the year, but high interest rates remain a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid end to the year, despite an array of drags on industrial activity
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Better than expected, but inflation and tight monetary policy are still weighing on activity.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resilient, but leading indicators warn of a difficult H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Industrial output in Mexico is edging lower, and the sector faces a cloudy domestic and external outlook.
- Tighter financial conditions and the weakening of the U.S. economy are key threats.
- Slowing manufacturing, falling inflation and the MXN rebound, will allow Banxico to hold rates in Q1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican industrial production surprised to the upside in August, helped by a leap in mining/oil output.
- Leading indicators warn that the improvement will fade soon; tighter financial conditions are hurting.
- Activity in the key manufacturing and construction sectors is under pressure and the outlook is poor.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector was under pressure in August, but the near-term outlook is positive.
- Improving domestic fundamentals likely will offset the drag from deteriorating external conditions.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Colombia, with the headline rate still climbing rapidly.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Weak, but manufacturing should be resilient over H2 as a whole.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
- ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
- Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
- Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
- The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
- ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
- Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
- Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
- The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
- Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
- The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
- The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
- Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
