Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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22 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Noise Improves at the Margin

  • Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
  • Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
  • Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Activity is Solid in Brazil, Inflation is Galloping in Argentina

  • Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
  • ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
  • Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Global Inflation Risks Have Spooked LatAm Markets

  • Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
  • Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
  • Chile — Political questions not abating

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 July 2022 Latin America Political Update Increased Tensions as the Recovery Falters

Brazil — Increasing spending ahead of the election

Chile — Turbulent weeks ahead

Peru — Mr. Castillo's troubled first year

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2022 Peru's Economic Activity Rebounded in May, but it Likely will Stall Soon

Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...

...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.

Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 July 2022 Currencies Hit by Global Recession Fears

Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail

Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro

Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 July 2022 Argentina's Never-ending Crisis

Alberto Fernández cedes the management of the Argentine economy to Kirchnerism; terrible news. 

The new finance minister will likely double down on unorthodox measures; the outlook will worsen. 

Chile’s government presents an ambitious, but well telegraphed, fiscal reform plan; no concerns, for now. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 June 2022 Activity Remained Resilient in H1, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly. 

Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative. 

Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 June 2022 Left-Wing Presidents Takes Over in the Region

Colombia — Petro becomes the first leftist president

Mexico — AMLO’s party seems unstoppable

Chile — A tax reform proposal will be presented

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 June 2022 Left-wing Candidate Petro Wins in Colombia; What Next?

Gustavo Petro makes history after being elected Colombia's first leftist president.

A fragmented and divided Congress will cap his room for action; this will limit the market sell-off.

Mr. Petro will face tough challenges, included a deep- ly divided country, and worried business community.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 June 2022 The COPOM will Hike Further in Q3, to Rule on Inflation Expectations

The COPOM eased the pace of tightening, but has left the door open to further hikes in Q3.

The deteriorating external inflation outlook has been forcing the Board to tweak its plans since May.

We now expect a final rate hike in August to anchor inflation expectations, if external conditions improve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2022 High Political Risk Limits the FX Rebound

Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage

Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook

Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 May 2022 The Economic Outlook for Argentina and Peru is Deteriorating Rapidly

Argentina’s economic recovery stalled in March, and conditions are deteriorating rapidly.

High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy in to a technical recession in Q2.

The Peruvian economy struggled in March, but it dodge a recession, thanks to a solid start to Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 May 2022 Under Global Clouds

Brazil — Hurt by increased risk aversion

Mexico — Increased global uncertainty hits the BVM

Colombia — Under pressure, despite solid dividends

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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