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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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The Argentinian economy is resilient, but the survey data tell a clear story of slowing growth in H1.
Households have been able to muddle through this year, but inflation is fast approaching 100%.
Deteriorating fundamentals suggest that the ruling coalition will lose the presidency in 2023.
Economic activity remains relatively resilient in Peru, despite a deteriorating political backdrop.
Growth momentum will continue to slow over H1, due to high inflation and high interest rates...
...But the economy won’t collapse; relatively solid check-and-balances will prevent a nightmare.
The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.
Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.
June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.
Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.
Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.
Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.
The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.
Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...
...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.
Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.
Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.
AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.
Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail
Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro
Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears
Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere.
Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers.
The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
High and sticky inflation in the Andes is increasing the pressure on policymakers to act beyond Q3.
The steady fall in currencies, due mainly to the hawkish Fed, is making things even more complicated.
The strategy will be to act boldly now and bring the economy to a standstill, to allow rapid easing in H1.
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