- In one line: A decent Q3, despite an array of drags on growth.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
The Argentinian economy is resilient, but the survey data tell a clear story of slowing growth in H1.
Households have been able to muddle through this year, but inflation is fast approaching 100%.
Deteriorating fundamentals suggest that the ruling coalition will lose the presidency in 2023.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Economic activity remains relatively resilient in Peru, despite a deteriorating political backdrop.
Growth momentum will continue to slow over H1, due to high inflation and high interest rates...
...But the economy won’t collapse; relatively solid check-and-balances will prevent a nightmare.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, but growth momentum is still easing sequentially.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The economy is shrinking, and the near-term outlook remains negative.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s President had a decent first 100 days in office, with the tax reform as a key achievement...
- ...But conflicting signals, between radicalism and orthodoxy, have hurt and will keep investors on alert.
- BanRep is likely to raise the policy interest rate further, owing to persistent price pressures.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Economic activity in Colombia and Peru remained relatively resilient in August, despite an array of drags.
- The outlook is challenging, though, as the squeeze on real disposable income drains growth momentum.
- The hit of higher borrowing costs for households and corporates on their spending will also hurt.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector was under pressure in August, but the near-term outlook is positive.
- Improving domestic fundamentals likely will offset the drag from deteriorating external conditions.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Colombia, with the headline rate still climbing rapidly.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
- ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
- Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
- Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
- Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
- Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
- Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
- The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
- Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
- Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
- Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
- The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
- Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
- The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
- The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
- Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.
Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.
Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.
Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
