Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a full list of our Latin America Publications.

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24 Feb 2021 Populist Moves in Brazil and Mexico are Worsening the Inflation Outlook

24 Feb 2021 Populist Moves in Brazil and Mexico are Worsening the Inflation Outlook

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)23rd Feb 2021 19:20Latin America

25 Jan 2021 Inflation in Mexico Rose in January, the Upturn likely will be Short-lived

Data released on Friday showed that underlying inflation pressures in Mexico remain under control, despite overshooting expectations during the first half of January.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)24th Jan 2021 19:20Latin America

6 Jan 2021 Mexico's Manufacturing Struggles, Peru's Inflation is Comfortably Low

The December PMI surveys in Mexico continue to bolster our argument of a subpar economic recovery in the first half of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)5th Jan 2021 19:10Latin America

14 Dec 2020 Conditions are Settling into Place for Banxico to Cut Rates Soon

Data released last week strengthened the case for interest rate cuts in Mexico in the very near term. Our base case is that Banxico will cut by 25bp to 4.0% on Thursday, by a slim...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)13th Dec 2020 19:20Latin America

9 Dec 2020 Rising Food Prices are Clouding Brazil's Near-Term Inflation Outlook

Yesterday's inflation report for Brazil confirmed that headline inflation remains relatively stable, on an historic context, but Covid-induced spikes in some components...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Dec 2020 19:10Latin America

25 Nov 2020 Temporary Divergent Inflation Fortunes in Brazil and Mexico

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, but it has taken divergent paths in November, allowing Banxico to ease even further over the next...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)24th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

21 Oct 2020 Colombia's Recovery will Gather Steam, but Downside Risks Remain

Data released on Monday confirmed that the Colombian economy slowed in August, following a solid rebound since mid Q2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)20th Oct 2020 20:10Latin America

19 Oct 2020 Colombia's Upturn Disappointed in August, but Q4 will be Slightly Better

Evidence of weakening momentum in the economic recovery in Colombia was seen last week, alongside its regional peers and some DM economies. Low inflation, low interest rates, and...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)18th Oct 2020 20:20Latin America

9 Oct 2020 Brazil's Retailers have Shrugged off the Corona Hit, but Threats Remain

Brazil's retail sector has shrugged off the Covid- related shock and leading indicators suggest that activity will continue to improve over the next few months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Oct 2020 20:10Latin America

28 Sept 2020 COPOM's Minutes and the Inflation Report Point to Rates on Hold

Recent economic data in Brazil, along with recent messages from the BCB, have supported our view that interest rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)27th Sep 2020 20:20Latin America

11 Sept 2020 Brazil's Retail Sector Started Q3 Solidly, will the Uptrend Continue

Data released in recent days have confirmed that private spending is on the mend in the biggest LatAm economies.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)10th Sep 2020 20:10Latin America

9 Sept 2020 Inflation in Chile Drifted Lower in August, Risks are Low, for Now

Inflation in most economies in LatAm is well under control, allowing central banks to keep a neutral or dovish bias, and giving them room for further rate cuts if the economic...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Sep 2020 20:10Latin America

26 Aug 2020 Inflation and External Accounts Remain Under Control in Brazil

Inflation pressures in Brazil are well under control, with the August mid-month reading falling more than expected, allowing the BCB to cut interest rates in the near term if...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)25th Aug 2020 18:20Latin America

27 July 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil will Allow the Copom to Cut Rates in August

Data released on Friday in Brazil and recent political events helped to open the door further to a final rate cut in August. The IPCA-15--which previews the full CPI--...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)26th Jul 2020 20:10Latin America

24 July 2020 Inflation in Mexico Rose in July, but the Recession will Ease Pressures

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the upside in early Q3, but we still believe it will fall gradually in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)23rd Jul 2020 20:10Latin America

10 July 2020 Brazil's Retail Activity Improved in May, but the Overall Picture is Grim

This week real data in Brazil supported the idea that the worst of the recession is likely over, but a V-shaped rebound is not in the cards.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)9th Jul 2020 20:10Latin America

26 June 2020 High Uncertainty about the Recovery will Force Banxico to Cut Further

Mexican policymakers yesterday voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 5.00%, the lowest level since late 2016.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)25th Jun 2020 20:10Latin America

24 June 2020 More to Come from Banxico, but Fiscal Policy Remains Absent

Mexican policymakers likely will stick to the script tomorrow and vote by a majority to cut the main rate by 50bp to 5.00%, which would be its lowest level since late 2016.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)23rd Jun 2020 20:10Latin America

17 June 2020 Further Proof of Severe Contraction in Q2, but Signs of Revival from June

Incoming data continue to highlight the severe hit from the pandemic on the real economies of the region, but some surveys and leading indicators are already pointing to a gradual...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)16th Jun 2020 20:10Latin America

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