Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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13 Sept 2021 Accelerating Inflation in Brazil Points to a Selic Rate Above Neutral Soon

  • Brazil's inflation surprises to the upside in August; the near-term outlook remains challenging.
  • A sharp inflation rebound supports the case for interest rates above neutral in the near term.
  • Inflation in Chile overshot expectations, again; the BCCh will deliver more tightening to tame pressures.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2021 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Slowdown in Q3

  • PMI surveys in Mexico suggest that momentum shifted lower in August, due to supply shocks.
  • Consumer confidence deteriorated in Q3, on the back of the third Covid wave and high inflation.
  • Fixed investment stalled in June, but the rec

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Sept 2021 Central Banks in the Andes will Continue to Hike Rates in Q4

  • The Chilean economy continues to surprise to the upside, and the good news will continue over Q4…
  • …But risks are tilting to the downside due to higher inflation pressures and tighter economic policies.
  • Peru's inflation rose sharply in August, due mainly to the lagged effect of the PEN's sell-of

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Aug 2021 Core Inflation is Still Rising in Mexico, due to the Reopening of the Economy

Mexico's core inflation is at cyclical highs and rising; the reopening of the economy is mostly responsible.

Inflation will stay well above Banxico's target range over H2, forcing policymakers to hike interest rates.

Fixed investment and private consumption continued to recover in Q2, the near-term outlook is positive.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 June 2021 Inflation Pressures Continue to Mount in Brazil and Mexico

LatAm as a whole is gradually recovering from the Covid shock, despite a temporary bump in late Q1 and April.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2021 Solid Retail Sales Numbers in Brazil; the Outlook Remains Positive

The economic data flow in Brazil remains upbeat, following a temporary blip in late Q1, due to the worsening of the pandemic, which triggered localised lockdown measures and curfews.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 May 2021 Brazil's Inflation in May Undershot Expectations, but Threats Remain

In a relatively light week in terms of economic indicators in Brazil, the inflation numbers garnered all the attention. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 May 2021 Andean Economies at Risk from a Sharp Inflation Rebound

The weak FX performance year-to-date in LatAm— particularly in Colombia and Peru—due mostly to growing political risk, rising commodity prices, and temporary supply shocks, raises the question of if and when we should start seeing effects on headline inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 Apr 2021 Inflation Surprised to the Downside in Brazil, but the Picture Remains Ugly

Rising headline inflation in Brazil has forced the COPOM into a cautious stance, even though growth is under pressure due to the pandemic.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 Mar 2021. Rising Energy Prices will Deteriorate Brazil's Inflation Picture in Q2

The marquee event in a very busy week in Brazil
was the release of the mid-month inflation report, which showed that inflation pressures are strengthening rapidly, despite the worsening of the pandemic and
the economic slowdown. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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