Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

external conditions

3 Dec 2021 Brazil Slipped into a Recession in Q3, but will Rebound in Q4, Just

  • The Brazilian economy slipped into a recession in Q3, due to global supply issues and bad weather.
  • Momentum will improve marginally in the near term, as some of the key drags ease...
  • ...But downside risks will prevail; Omicron, high in- flation, fiscal and political uncertainty remain drags.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 Dec 2021 Chile's Economy Started Q4 on a Solid Footing, Despite Politics

  • Chile's economy remains resilient thanks, to a solid vaccination program and robust policy support.
  • Solid retail sales get Q4 consumption off to a very strong start, but momentum will ease soon.
  • Challenging external conditions, high inflation, and political noise will limit the recovery in H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Nov 2021 Omicron Arrives in LatAm Just as the Pandemic Was Under Control

  • The Omicron-sparked sell-off is easing; LatAm is watching closely, after dealing with Delta.
  • Supply disruptions have driven Mexico's external accounts into the red; the outlook for H1 is grim.
  • The Delta hit in Q3 and increased political risk have scared away investors; outflows are substantial.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 Nov 2021 Fears of a Potential Vaccine- Resistant Variant Hit LatAm Markets

  • LatAm markets hit as new Covid strain spooks investors driving a safe-haven assets move.
  • The Mexican economy performed poorly in Q3, due chiefly to the Delta wave hit to the services sector.
  • The recovery will resume soon, but 20-year high inflation and increased policy risk will limit the upturn.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Nov 2021 Mexico's Retail Sales Recovered in Late Q3, but the Trend Remains Weak

  • Retail sales in Mexico recovered at the margin in late Q3, but not quite reversing the July drop.
  • We expect a modest rebound in Q4, thanks to the reopening, but rising inflation will remain a drag.
  • Decent remittances from abroad, and an improving labour market, will prevent a protracted downtrend.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Nov 2021 The Chilean Economy Won't Have it Easy, Even if Pro-Business Kast Wins

  • Chilean GDP growth accelerated in Q3, but the strong data are backward-looking; 2022 looks shaky.
  • Tighter fiscal and monetary policies likely will put the economy on the verge of a technical recession.
  • Even assuming a Kast win, political risk will persist; the constitutional process will remain a threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Nov 2021 Chileans Go to the Polls this Sunday, Colombia's GDP Rebounding Solidly

  • Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
  • Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
  • Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Nov 2021 Brazil's Economy Grounded to a Halt in Q3; Downside Forces Prevail

  • An array of shocks, including high inflation, have stopped the Brazilian recovery in its tracks since Q2.
  • We expect a modest recovery in Q4, but risks remain massively tilted to the downside.
  • A resilient recovery, increased institutional risk, and high inflation will force Peru's BCRP to keep hiking.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Nov 2021 More Pain Ahead in Argentina, despite the Midterm Election Result

  • The midterm election result in Argentina has diminished the chances of a Peronist second term.
  • The ruling coalition, FdT, has lost the Senate; it will have to negotiate with JpC to implement key policies.
  • The economy will continue to suffer in the near term; a deal with IMF is badly needed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Nov 2021 Surging Inflation will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Industrial Sector

  • High inflation, lingering supply shocks and tighter financial conditions, are weighing on Mexico's output.
  • Some of the shocks will ease soon, but soaring energy prices and policy uncertainty will remain drags.
  • Improving global demand and the U.S. infrastructure bill will support the manufacturing upturn next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Nov 2021 Under Pressure Due to Rising Inflation and Policy Risk

  • Brazil — Hurt by rising fiscal uncertainty
  • Argentina — Calm before the storm
  • Peru — Castillo is digging himself into a deeper hole

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Nov 2021 Inflation in Mexico is Still Rocketing, Putting Banxico in a Tough Spot

  • Inflation in Mexico is still rising rapidly, boosted by higher energy tariffs, and the reopening.
  • The near-term outlook remains challenging and infla- tion expectations will continue to head north.
  • Banxico will continue to hike in the near term, but gradually, due to the stuttering economic recovery.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Nov 2021 Inflation in Colombia and Peru Continues to Head North

  • Colombia's inflation undershoots in October, thanks to the VAT-free day, but the good news won’t persist.
  • BanRep will have to continue normalising monetary policy over the first half of next year.
  • Inflation in Peru is running hot, and the near-term outlook is grim, the BCRP will hike boldly this week.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Nov 2021 The Industrial Recession in Brazil likely will Continue in Q4

  • Brazil's industrial sector remains under severe pres- sure, due to an array of shocks; the outlook is grim.
  • Ongoing global supply issues, high inflation, the en- ergy crisis, and bad weather have hit the sector badly.
  • Conditions will remain challenging in Q4, but we expect a modest improvement from Q1 onwards.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Nov 2021 Chile's Recovery Continues, but Momentum likely will Ease Soon

  • Chile's economic recovery continues, thanks to the lagged effect of solid fiscal and monetary support...
  • ...But the outlook has clouded, due to rising inflation, tighter financial conditions and increased policy risk.
  • Jose Kast continues to enjoy considerable momen- tum ahead of November 21's presidential race.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Nov 2021 Mexico's Recovery likely will Resume in Q4, but Downside Risks Prevail

  • Mexico's economic recovery hit a wall in August, due mostly to temporary shocks, including the Delta hit.
  • The upturn likely will resume soon, but AMLO's popu- list approach and high inflation will remain key drags.
  • External conditions will support the economy next year, but risks will persist under AMLO's rule.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 Nov 2021 Brazil is in a Mess, Thanks to High Inflation, and Mr. Bolsonaro

  • Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Bra- zil, as inflation surges and political risk rises.
  • The fiscal picture is set to worsen, as the spending cap likely will be altered; the BRL is suffering.
  • The COPOM will be forced to tighten ever further; inflation will fall as the economy falls into recession.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Oct 2021 Growth in Mexico's Retail Sector is Slowing, but it won't Crash Again

  • Retail sales in Mexico remained resilient in August, despite the Delta hit, but the trend is still slowing.
  • High inflation and tighter monetary policy likely will delay a full recovery in households' spending to Q2.
  • President Bolsonaro's troubles continue, clouding the recovery, and pushing the BCB to its limits.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Oct 2021 Increased Policy and Economic Uncertainty in the Southern Cone

  • Presidential and Congressional elections in Chile are fast approaching, and the race remains wide open.
  • Argentina's inflation rebounded sharply in August, despite the government's efforts to limit the upturn.
  • The reopening of the economy and unorthodox policies will keep inflation too high for comfort.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Oct 2021 The Andean Economies are Going from Strength to Strength, for Now

  • Colombia's economy is recovering rapidly; hard data rebounded in August, especially in the retail sector.
  • The rebound will continue in Q4, but the outlook is overcast as inflation rebounds and BanRep tightens.
  • Peru's economy is also performing strongly, and reduced political risk points to a decent Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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