- Retail sales in Mexico fell for a second consecutive month in September, hit by still-high inflation.
- Tighter financial conditions are also helping to put the sector under renewed strain.
- Still-solid remittances from abroad, and a resilient labour market, will prevent a collapse, for now.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Industrial output in Mexico is edging lower, and the sector faces a cloudy domestic and external outlook.
- Tighter financial conditions and the weakening of the U.S. economy are key threats.
- Slowing manufacturing, falling inflation and the MXN rebound, will allow Banxico to hold rates in Q1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy was resilient in Q3, despite weakening sectoral and survey data.
- But the good news won’t last; still-high inflation and tighter financial conditions remain threats.
- Most importantly, a weakening U.S. economy, hitting manufacturing and remittances, is a huge risk.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Mexico probably peaked in Q3, and we expect it to edge down in the near term.
- Core inflation remains sticky, but not for long, as the economic recovery stutters and shocks finally fade.
- Brazil’s external accounts remain resilient, providing a cushion against uncertainty elsewhere.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
The runoff polls continue to show Lula in the pole position, but anything can happen in a week.
The shambolic start to Gustavo Petro’s presidency will keep the COP and external accounts under strain.
Exports remain solid, but import contraction should help stabilize the trade deficit, albeit at a wide level.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
- ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
- Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
- Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
- Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
- Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
- Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
- The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
- Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
- Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
- Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
- Chile — Political questions not abating
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
- The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?
Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO
Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
