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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

exports

26 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Activity was Sturdy in H1 in Mexico and Argentina, but Risks Abound

  • Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
  • Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
  • Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Manufacturing Continues to Shoulder the Industrial Recovery

  • Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
  • Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
  • The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor China's Economic Slowdown will Hurt LatAm Commodity Exports

  • China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
  • Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
  • The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Resilient Economic Activity in Peru, Despite Political Disruption

The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.

Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.

External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Impressive Economic Growth in H1 will Peter Out, Soon

Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.

The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.

BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 July 2022 Latin America Monitor High Inflation is Denting the Upturn in Mexico and Argentina

The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.

Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...

...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2022 Manufacturing Remains a Key Support for GDP Growth in Mexico

Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.

Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.

AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2022 Mexico's Trade Deficit Sank Further, due Mainly to High Oil Prices

Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.

The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.

Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 June 2022 Activity Remained Resilient in H1, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly. 

Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative. 

Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2022 High Political Risk Limits the FX Rebound

Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage

Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook

Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 June 2022 Brazil's Solid Recovery Continues, Despite Diverse Shocks

Brazil’s recovery continued in Q1, due mostly to increased mobility and further fiscal support... 

...But the near-term outlook for households’ real disposable income is challenging. 

Increased spending on services, and high commodity prices, will allow the economy to stay afloat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 May 2022 Mexico's Recent Economic Strength Likely will Falter Soon

The Mexican economy performed strongly in Q1, but activity remains well below pre-crisis levels.

The outlook for the rest of 2022 is challenging, pushing inflation gradually down from Q3 onwards.

Banxico strengthened its hawkish tone at its last policy Minutes, but it will have to ease it soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 May 2022 Chile's GDP Contracted Sharply in Q1, Payback After a Solid 2021

Chile’s recovery has stalled, due to plunging domestic demand; the upturn will resume, but risks remain.

The constitutional process is entering the final phase; the most controversial issues have been ditched...

...But uncertainty persists, and voters are disenchanted; the process likely will end up being a disaster.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 May 2022 Colombia's Solid Recovery Continued in Q1, but the Pace is Unsustainable

Colombia’s solid recovery continued in Q1, thanks mainly to robust private consumption...

...But momentum is already fading on a sequential basis, due to deteriorating domestic fundamentals.

High inflation, tighter monetary policy, and deteriorating external conditions will be key drags.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 May 2022 LatAm Central Banks in a Big Dilemma

Rising export prices continue to support growth, but they are also driving higher-than-expected inflation.

Global inflation pressures from food and energy will keep restrictive bias on monetary policy.

Most countries will continue to tighten, despite the absence of domestic demand-driven inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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