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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?
Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO
Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports
The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.
Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.
Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.
The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.
Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.
The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.
BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.
Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...
...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.
Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.
Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.
AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.
Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.
The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.
Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.
The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly.
Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative.
Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further.
Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage
Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook
Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won
Brazil’s recovery continued in Q1, due mostly to increased mobility and further fiscal support...
...But the near-term outlook for households’ real disposable income is challenging.
Increased spending on services, and high commodity prices, will allow the economy to stay afloat.
The Mexican economy performed strongly in Q1, but activity remains well below pre-crisis levels.
The outlook for the rest of 2022 is challenging, pushing inflation gradually down from Q3 onwards.
Banxico strengthened its hawkish tone at its last policy Minutes, but it will have to ease it soon.
Chile’s recovery has stalled, due to plunging domestic demand; the upturn will resume, but risks remain.
The constitutional process is entering the final phase; the most controversial issues have been ditched...
...But uncertainty persists, and voters are disenchanted; the process likely will end up being a disaster.
Colombia’s solid recovery continued in Q1, thanks mainly to robust private consumption...
...But momentum is already fading on a sequential basis, due to deteriorating domestic fundamentals.
High inflation, tighter monetary policy, and deteriorating external conditions will be key drags.
Rising export prices continue to support growth, but they are also driving higher-than-expected inflation.
Global inflation pressures from food and energy will keep restrictive bias on monetary policy.
Most countries will continue to tighten, despite the absence of domestic demand-driven inflation.
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