- Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
- Mexico — A solid start to the year
- Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — No clear winner from Sunday’s TV debate
- Mexico — The energy sector dispute intensifies
- Colombia — Mr. Petro’s remarks drive uncertainty
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
- Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
- ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
- Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
- Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
- Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
- ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
- Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
- The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?
Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO
Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows, just
Mexico — AMLO’s protectionist policies bite
Chile — A “rejection” of the new constitution is ahead
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation.
CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices.
Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
