Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

electricity

23 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor A Divided COPOM Ends the Hiking Cycle with a Hawkish Tone

  • Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
  • ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
  • Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor August's CPI Data in Brazil Are Good Enough to Prevent More Rate Hikes

  • The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
  • ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
  • Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile Resoundingly Rejects Mr. Boric's New Constitution; Now What?

  • Voters in Chile have overwhelmingly rejected a new constitution; now it is time for a moderate approach.
  • Inflation in Colombia is still running hot, due mostly to food prices and a robust domestic demand.
  • BanRep will continue to hike rates this year, but we still believe that inflation will start to fall in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 July 2022 Latin America Monitor A Disinflation Trend Emerges in Brazil, Thanks to Recent Measures

 A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...

...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.

The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Headline Inflation in Mexico will Slow Gradually in H2, Despite July's Uptick

Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening... 

...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing. 

Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2022 Peru's Economic Activity Rebounded in May, but it Likely will Stall Soon

Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...

...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.

Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 July 2022 Inflation Remains a Headache for Banxico, but it Will Peak Soon

Inflationary pressures remain elevated in Mexico, but the headline rate will probably peak soon.

Banxico minutes emphasize that policymakers are determined to bring down inflation in H2.

Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly; the near-term outlook remains challenging, due to strong demand.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 June 2022 Banxico Likely will Increase the Pace of Tightening this Week

Banxico likely will accelerate its pace of tightening tomorrow, and will keep the door open for more hikes.

The inflation picture continues to deteriorate, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

Risk of a more frontloaded Fed hiking cycle will keep Mexican policymakers on a tightening path.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 June 2022 Peru's BCRP to Hike Further in Q3, Colombia's Election is Too Call

Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.

The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.

Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 June 2022 Headline Inflation is Peaking in BraMex

Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign. 

Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky. 

The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 June 2022 April's Brisk Retail Numbers in Chile Mask a Falling Underlying Trend

Retail sales in Chile remained resilient in April, but the trend is falling; fundamentals are deteriorating.

Manufacturing improved at the margin in early Q2, but mining activity remains a key drag.

The job market recovery continued in April, but conditions are worsening, pointing to a tough H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 May 2022 LatAm will Rein-in Stubbornly High Inflation in the Second Half

Food has been a key contributor to the inflation rebound in Q2, but pressures likely will ease in H2.

Core prices also will drive inflation down, as economies lose momentum.

Further monetary tightening and unconventional measures will add to the squeeze on inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 May 2022 Orthodox and Unconventional Measures to Fight Sticky Inflation

Inflation remains a headache for policymakers, but conditions likely will improve at the margin in Q3.

Food inflation remains a key upside risk, forcing governments to implement unconventional steps.

This will probably help in the near term, but will slow the disinflation trend next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 May 2022 Political Risk on the Rise as Economic Conditions Worsen

Brazil — Lula’s lead continues to narrow

Colombia — Gustavo Petro still in the lead

Chile — The draft of the New Constitution is out

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 May 2022 Banxico Hikes by Another 50bp, but Rates are Nowhere Near the Peak Yet

Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.

Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.

Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 May Inflation in Mexico and Colombia Continues to Rise Rapidly, for Now

April inflation in Mexico undershot expectations, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

The data brought modest comfort to policymakers, but the tightening cycle will continue this week.

In Colombia, April inflation surprised to the upside; BanRep will keep hiking, as it is far behind the curve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Latin America

Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence