Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
election
- The Brazilian economy slipped into a recession in Q3, due to global supply issues and bad weather.
- Momentum will improve marginally in the near term, as some of the key drags ease...
- ...But downside risks will prevail; Omicron, high in- flation, fiscal and political uncertainty remain drags.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Jose Kast won the first round of the Chilean presidential election by a small margin.
- Markets rebounded as candidates will have to moderate their tone and move to the political centre.
- Peru's economy is on the mend; it will do well in Q4, but remains exposed to China and political risks.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
- Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
- Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- An array of shocks, including high inflation, have stopped the Brazilian recovery in its tracks since Q2.
- We expect a modest recovery in Q4, but risks remain massively tilted to the downside.
- A resilient recovery, increased institutional risk, and high inflation will force Peru's BCRP to keep hiking.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The midterm election result in Argentina has diminished the chances of a Peronist second term.
- The ruling coalition, FdT, has lost the Senate; it will have to negotiate with JpC to implement key policies.
- The economy will continue to suffer in the near term; a deal with IMF is badly needed.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hurt by rising fiscal uncertainty
- Argentina — Calm before the storm
- Peru — Castillo is digging himself into a deeper hole
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation continues to rebound in Chile, on the back of the reopening, and higher commodity prices.
- The near-term remains challenging, which will force the BCCh to tighten rapidly over the next meetings.
- Conditions likely will improve by mid-Q1, assuming political risks ease at the margin after November 21.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's inflation undershoots in October, thanks to the VAT-free day, but the good news won’t persist.
- BanRep will have to continue normalising monetary policy over the first half of next year.
- Inflation in Peru is running hot, and the near-term outlook is grim, the BCRP will hike boldly this week.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's industrial sector remains under severe pres- sure, due to an array of shocks; the outlook is grim.
- Ongoing global supply issues, high inflation, the en- ergy crisis, and bad weather have hit the sector badly.
- Conditions will remain challenging in Q4, but we expect a modest improvement from Q1 onwards.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Brazilian Real — Fiscal uncertainty is back
Mexican Peso — Populist AMLO is a key drag
Peruvian New Sol — Castillo's chaotic start
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Mexico remained resilient in August, despite the Delta hit, but the trend is still slowing.
- High inflation and tighter monetary policy likely will delay a full recovery in households' spending to Q2.
- President Bolsonaro's troubles continue, clouding the recovery, and pushing the BCB to its limits.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Legal storm clouds gather over Bolsonaro
- Mexico — AMLO's power reform is a big threat
- Chile — The election race enters its final stage
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Presidential and Congressional elections in Chile are fast approaching, and the race remains wide open.
- Argentina's inflation rebounded sharply in August, despite the government's efforts to limit the upturn.
- The reopening of the economy and unorthodox policies will keep inflation too high for comfort.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's economy is recovering rapidly; hard data rebounded in August, especially in the retail sector.
- The rebound will continue in Q4, but the outlook is overcast as inflation rebounds and BanRep tightens.
- Peru's economy is also performing strongly, and reduced political risk points to a decent Q4.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia — Supported by the global energy crisis
- Chile — In the hands of the pension withdrawal
- Peru — Cabinet reshuffle boost financial markets
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Monetary tightening will continue in the Andes; inflation pressures likely will gather speed in Q4.
- Inflation in Colombia rose in September and is now well above BanRep's target range.
- Supply-side disruptions, a reopening boost in prices and the PEN's sell-off, forced the BCRP to hike.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican Peso — Under the weight of the USD
- Brazilian Real — Political risk on the front row
- Colombian Peso — Supported by rising oil prices
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's COPOM delivers the expected bold rate hike, and announces more to come in the near term.
- Banxico will follow through as inflation surprises sub- stantially to the upside, despite AMLO's efforts.
- BraMex inflation has been hit by the perfect storm; bad weather, supply issues, and the reopening.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina — PASO results spell trouble for ruling party
- Chile — The election race remains wide open
- Peru — Castillo is already encountering roadblocks
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Rising political risk continues to cloud prospects for a sustained economic rebound and capex in LatAm.
- Argentina’s President reshuffles his cabinet, and announces measures to bring back voters.
- Chile's Presidential candidate Boric leads the polls ahead of November's election, but the race is open.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
