Brazilian Real — Under pressure as the USD rebounds
Colombian Peso — Correcting due to high uncertainty
Chilean Peso — Elevated domestic and external risk
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Colombia — Gaffes hurt Petro's presidential campaign
Brazil — Bolsonaro's approval rating is on the mend
Peru — Increased social unrest and political risk
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Inflation was already biting in LatAm, but now the effects of the Ukraine war are adding further pressure.
Inflation will remain elevated in Q2, due to deteriorating global conditions and supply issues.
Peru's BCRP has delivered another bold rate hike, and the door for further tightening remains open.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina's economic recovery consolidated in H2, but the near-term outlook is negative.
- Inflation is rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further.
- The IMF plan has been approved, averting the worst-case scenario, but challenges remain.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Rising commodity prices will support key economic sectors in Argentina, but inflation will remain high.
- The Senate approved a new agreement with the IMF, conjuring up the spectre of default.
- The program will try to stop the runaway inflation, but underlying conditions will remain challenging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Leftist Gustavo Petro consolidates momentum ahead of the May presidential vote in Colombia...
- ...But the race remains wide open and the centre-right still have a good chance of winning.
- Our base case is that Fico Gutierrez will win; stability will prevail despite many looking for deep changes.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia — Rising oil prices are a blessing, for now
- Peru — Markets continue to shrug off politics
- Mexico — Resilient, but near-term threats prevail
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The global inflation outlook continues to deteriorate and monetary tightening will need to be meaningful.
- Increasing inflation implies that central banks are likely to continue tightening rates, hurting activity.
- Inflation in Colombia validates our view of bold monetary tightening, despite the COP's rebound.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Q4 GDP growth pleased markets, thanks to the reopening and modest fiscal support....
- ...But conditions have turned challenging for both investment and private consumption.
- Deteriorating confidence is the key threat to the up-turn, but we see no near-term catalyst for rebound.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — The rally is losing steam
- Colombian Peso — Outperforming on surging oil prices
- Peruvian New Sol — A balanced outlook, for now
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombian GDP rose by a brisk 4.3% in Q4, due mainly to solid private consumption...
- ...But a consumer-led slowdown is coming; high inflation, and tighter financial conditions will be drags.
- The second half of the year likely will be better, but increased political/policy uncertainty is a key threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Commodity prices continue to rebound, which will help to ease LatAm's risk profile in the near term.
- The threat of a Russia-Ukraine war is supporting prices, but downside risks remain.
- High actual inflation and rising inflation expectations will force the BCRP to continue to tighten.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's economy muddled through the fourth quarter, but there's nothing to cheer about.
- The services economy performed strongly in Q4, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.
- Inflation surprised to the downside in January, but this won't bring any comfort to the COPOM.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A robust start to the year, but risks prevail
- Chile — A potential orthodox Boric appeases investors
- Peru — The rebound continues, despite politics
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's COPOM delivered a more hawkish tone in its last minutes, but the pace of tightening will ease.
- Deteriorating fiscal conditions are a real concern, despite the sluggishness of the economic cycle.
- Inflation in Chile is rising rapidly, and we expect the uptrend to continue over H1; the BCCh will act soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly, due to soaring raw material prices, and the COP's sell-off.
- Political and policy uncertainty, coupled with subpar fiscal conditions, will force policymakers to hike in H1.
- Political risk in Chile continues to ease, as orthodoxy prevails; Peruvian politics, meanwhile, remain a mess.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's COPOM delivered a well-telegraphed bold rate hike, aiming to push inflation expectations lower.
- It also sent a clear signal that it plans to reduce the pace of monetary tightening, as conditions improve.
- Brazil posted its first primary surplus since 2013, but the good news won't last.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — A solid commodity-driven rally
- Colombian Peso — Supported by rising oil prices
- Chilean Peso — Political risks ease, for now
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The Chilean economy is easing momentum, as the boost from solid fiscal and monetary support fades.
- The services sector remains solid, but leading indi- cators suggest that Q1 will be bumpy.
- The solid labour market recovery continued in Q4, but key sectors will start to struggle.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican headline inflation continues to edge down, but it’s too soon for a dovish shift from Banxico.
- Core pressures persist and the near term remains tough, due to both external and domestic forces.
- Colombia's domestic demand recovery continues, but it is faltering in Peru, following a solid H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
