Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

election

12 Jan 2023 LatAm Monitor Resilient, Despite Increased Political Noise

  • Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
  • Mexico — A solid start to the year
  • Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Brazilian election, Runoff, October, 2022

  • In one line: Lula wins his third term in a very tight race; an uphill economic battle has just begun.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Election is Up For Grabs, Policy Orthodoxy the Winner

  • Brazil’s Lula took the lead in a surprising first round of the presidential election; the runoff is up for grabs.
  • The results confirmed Lula’s lead in all polls, but they failed to catch the strength of Bolsonaro’s bounce.
  • Bolsonaro’s strong momentum gives him an edge, but a more moderate Lula also bodes well for assets.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Bolsonaro, Lula and Sunday's Divisive Presidential Election

  • Lula has a good chances of winning the presidency on Sunday as Mr. Bolsonaro failed to gather strength.
  • We suspect that markets had already priced-in a Lula win, but Bolsonaro is unlikely to go quietly.
  • Banxico hiked by a bold 75bp and stuck to the message of data-dependency; that is, the Fed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Activity was Sturdy in H1 in Mexico and Argentina, but Risks Abound

  • Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
  • Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
  • Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Noise Improves at the Margin

  • Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
  • Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
  • Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Recovery is Petering Out in Colombia as Inflation Bites

  • Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
  • Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
  • The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Can President Bolsonaro Close the Gap on Lula in Coming Weeks

  • Leftist ex-president Lula remains the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential race, but the gap is narrowing.
  • Mr. Bolsonaro’s recent economic policies, including tax relief and increased fiscal aid, are paying-off, just.
  • The race is up for grabs, but we expect no radical change in economic policy, regardless of who wins.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Global Inflation Risks Have Spooked LatAm Markets

  • Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
  • Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
  • Chile — Political questions not abating

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Uncertainty Keeps Pressure

Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows, just

Mexico — AMLO’s protectionist policies bite

Chile — A “rejection” of the new constitution is ahead

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence