Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

election

PM Datanote: Brazilian election, Runoff, October, 2022

  • In one line: Lula wins his third term in a very tight race; an uphill economic battle has just begun.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Election is Up For Grabs, Policy Orthodoxy the Winner

  • Brazil’s Lula took the lead in a surprising first round of the presidential election; the runoff is up for grabs.
  • The results confirmed Lula’s lead in all polls, but they failed to catch the strength of Bolsonaro’s bounce.
  • Bolsonaro’s strong momentum gives him an edge, but a more moderate Lula also bodes well for assets.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Bolsonaro, Lula and Sunday's Divisive Presidential Election

  • Lula has a good chances of winning the presidency on Sunday as Mr. Bolsonaro failed to gather strength.
  • We suspect that markets had already priced-in a Lula win, but Bolsonaro is unlikely to go quietly.
  • Banxico hiked by a bold 75bp and stuck to the message of data-dependency; that is, the Fed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Activity was Sturdy in H1 in Mexico and Argentina, but Risks Abound

  • Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
  • Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
  • Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Noise Improves at the Margin

  • Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
  • Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
  • Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Recovery is Petering Out in Colombia as Inflation Bites

  • Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
  • Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
  • The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Can President Bolsonaro Close the Gap on Lula in Coming Weeks

  • Leftist ex-president Lula remains the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential race, but the gap is narrowing.
  • Mr. Bolsonaro’s recent economic policies, including tax relief and increased fiscal aid, are paying-off, just.
  • The race is up for grabs, but we expect no radical change in economic policy, regardless of who wins.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Global Inflation Risks Have Spooked LatAm Markets

  • Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
  • Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
  • Chile — Political questions not abating

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Uncertainty Keeps Pressure

Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows, just

Mexico — AMLO’s protectionist policies bite

Chile — A “rejection” of the new constitution is ahead

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Impressive Economic Growth in H1 will Peter Out, Soon

Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.

The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.

BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Rebounding Despite an Array of Threats

Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk

Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag

Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Underlying Inflation Pressures Force More Rate Hikes in LatAm

Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...

...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.

Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 July 2022 Latin America Monitor A Disinflation Trend Emerges in Brazil, Thanks to Recent Measures

 A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...

...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.

The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 July 2022 Latin America Political Update Increased Tensions as the Recovery Falters

Brazil — Increasing spending ahead of the election

Chile — Turbulent weeks ahead

Peru — Mr. Castillo's troubled first year

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 July 2022 Colombia's Near-Term Outlook Has Worsened, the COP Feels the Pain

Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.

Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.

A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 July 2022 Brazil's Retail Sector is Resilient, and the Outlook has Improved

Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.

Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.

The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2022 Battered by Deteriorating Domestic and External Conditions

Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting

Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag

Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 July 2022 Brazil's Presidential Election is Up for Grabs, Despite Lula Leading

The latest polls confirm that former President Lula will win in Brazil, but anything can still happen.

Mr. Bolsonaro’s strategy—mostly boosting aid to households—is giving him modest support.

We expect the near-term momentum to continue to favour the opposition, but the economy will decide.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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