Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

election

3 Dec 2021 Brazil Slipped into a Recession in Q3, but will Rebound in Q4, Just

  • The Brazilian economy slipped into a recession in Q3, due to global supply issues and bad weather.
  • Momentum will improve marginally in the near term, as some of the key drags ease...
  • ...But downside risks will prevail; Omicron, high in- flation, fiscal and political uncertainty remain drags.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Nov 2021 All Eyes on Chile's Presidential Runoff, Peru's Rebound Continues

  • Jose Kast won the first round of the Chilean presidential election by a small margin.
  • Markets rebounded as candidates will have to moderate their tone and move to the political centre.
  • Peru's economy is on the mend; it will do well in Q4, but remains exposed to China and political risks.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Nov 2021 Chileans Go to the Polls this Sunday, Colombia's GDP Rebounding Solidly

  • Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
  • Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
  • Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Nov 2021 Brazil's Economy Grounded to a Halt in Q3; Downside Forces Prevail

  • An array of shocks, including high inflation, have stopped the Brazilian recovery in its tracks since Q2.
  • We expect a modest recovery in Q4, but risks remain massively tilted to the downside.
  • A resilient recovery, increased institutional risk, and high inflation will force Peru's BCRP to keep hiking.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Nov 2021 More Pain Ahead in Argentina, despite the Midterm Election Result

  • The midterm election result in Argentina has diminished the chances of a Peronist second term.
  • The ruling coalition, FdT, has lost the Senate; it will have to negotiate with JpC to implement key policies.
  • The economy will continue to suffer in the near term; a deal with IMF is badly needed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Nov 2021 Under Pressure Due to Rising Inflation and Policy Risk

  • Brazil — Hurt by rising fiscal uncertainty
  • Argentina — Calm before the storm
  • Peru — Castillo is digging himself into a deeper hole

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Nov 2021 Inflation Continues to Rise Rapidly in Chile due to an Array of Shocks

  • Inflation continues to rebound in Chile, on the back of the reopening, and higher commodity prices.
  • The near-term remains challenging, which will force the BCCh to tighten rapidly over the next meetings.
  • Conditions likely will improve by mid-Q1, assuming political risks ease at the margin after November 21.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Nov 2021 Inflation in Colombia and Peru Continues to Head North

  • Colombia's inflation undershoots in October, thanks to the VAT-free day, but the good news won’t persist.
  • BanRep will have to continue normalising monetary policy over the first half of next year.
  • Inflation in Peru is running hot, and the near-term outlook is grim, the BCRP will hike boldly this week.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Nov 2021 The Industrial Recession in Brazil likely will Continue in Q4

  • Brazil's industrial sector remains under severe pres- sure, due to an array of shocks; the outlook is grim.
  • Ongoing global supply issues, high inflation, the en- ergy crisis, and bad weather have hit the sector badly.
  • Conditions will remain challenging in Q4, but we expect a modest improvement from Q1 onwards.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Nov 2021 Uncertainty Continues to Hurt LatAm Currencies

Brazilian Real — Fiscal uncertainty is back

Mexican Peso — Populist AMLO is a key drag

Peruvian New Sol — Castillo's chaotic start

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Oct 2021 Growth in Mexico's Retail Sector is Slowing, but it won't Crash Again

  • Retail sales in Mexico remained resilient in August, despite the Delta hit, but the trend is still slowing.
  • High inflation and tighter monetary policy likely will delay a full recovery in households' spending to Q2.
  • President Bolsonaro's troubles continue, clouding the recovery, and pushing the BCB to its limits.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Oct 2021 High Political Risk Likely will Delay the Economic Recovery

  • Brazil — Legal storm clouds gather over Bolsonaro
  • Mexico — AMLO's power reform is a big threat
  • Chile — The election race enters its final stage

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Oct 2021 Increased Policy and Economic Uncertainty in the Southern Cone

  • Presidential and Congressional elections in Chile are fast approaching, and the race remains wide open.
  • Argentina's inflation rebounded sharply in August, despite the government's efforts to limit the upturn.
  • The reopening of the economy and unorthodox policies will keep inflation too high for comfort.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Oct 2021 The Andean Economies are Going from Strength to Strength, for Now

  • Colombia's economy is recovering rapidly; hard data rebounded in August, especially in the retail sector.
  • The rebound will continue in Q4, but the outlook is overcast as inflation rebounds and BanRep tightens.
  • Peru's economy is also performing strongly, and reduced political risk points to a decent Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Oct 2021 Battling Between Rising Oil Prices and Increased Political Noise

  • Colombia — Supported by the global energy crisis
  • Chile — In the hands of the pension withdrawal
  • Peru — Cabinet reshuffle boost financial markets

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Oct 2021 Inflation in the Andes will Continue to Rebound in Q4; Central Banks to Act

  • Monetary tightening will continue in the Andes; inflation pressures likely will gather speed in Q4.
  • Inflation in Colombia rose in September and is now well above BanRep's target range.
  • Supply-side disruptions, a reopening boost in prices and the PEN's sell-off, forced the BCRP to hike.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Oct 2021 Under the Shadow of the Strong USD Move

  • Mexican Peso — Under the weight of the USD
  • Brazilian Real — Political risk on the front row
  • Colombian Peso — Supported by rising oil prices

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Sept 2021 High Inflation and a Decent Recovery Means More Monetary Tightening

  • Brazil's COPOM delivers the expected bold rate hike, and announces more to come in the near term.
  • Banxico will follow through as inflation surprises sub- stantially to the upside, despite AMLO's efforts.
  • BraMex inflation has been hit by the perfect storm; bad weather, supply issues, and the reopening.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Sept 2021 The Pandemic Adds to the Existing Political Discontent

  • Argentina — PASO results spell trouble for ruling party
  • Chile — The election race remains wide open
  • Peru — Castillo is already encountering roadblocks

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Sept 2021 Political Risk and Inflation Fears will Continue to Take Centre Stage

  • Rising political risk continues to cloud prospects for a sustained economic rebound and capex in LatAm.
  • Argentina’s President reshuffles his cabinet, and announces measures to bring back voters.
  • Chile's Presidential candidate Boric leads the polls ahead of November's election, but the race is open.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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