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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

downside risks

26 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Activity was Sturdy in H1 in Mexico and Argentina, but Risks Abound

  • Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
  • Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
  • Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor A Divided COPOM Ends the Hiking Cycle with a Hawkish Tone

  • Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
  • ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
  • Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Recovery is Petering Out in Colombia as Inflation Bites

  • Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
  • Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
  • The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Global Inflation Risks Have Spooked LatAm Markets

  • Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
  • Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
  • Chile — Political questions not abating

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Manufacturing Continues to Shoulder the Industrial Recovery

  • Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
  • Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
  • The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor China's Economic Slowdown will Hurt LatAm Commodity Exports

  • China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
  • Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
  • The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile's Economy Struggles Ahead of the Constitutional Referendum

  • Chile’s labour market is under renewed strain and survey data point to a challenging H2...
  • ...High inflation, tighter financial conditions, increased interest rates, and elevated political risks are drags.
  • Chileans will vote on Sunday on a new constitution, but uncertainty will persist regardless.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Economic Recovery is Stalling, and Banxico is Watching

The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Uncertainty Keeps Pressure

Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows, just

Mexico — AMLO’s protectionist policies bite

Chile — A “rejection” of the new constitution is ahead

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Resilient Economic Activity in Peru, Despite Political Disruption

The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.

Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.

External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor June's Retail Sales Figures in Mexico are Raising Red Flags

June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.

Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.

Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Impressive Economic Growth in H1 will Peter Out, Soon

Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.

The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.

BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Rebounding Despite an Array of Threats

Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk

Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag

Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Underlying Inflation Pressures Force More Rate Hikes in LatAm

Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...

...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.

Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Economy Shows Signs of Fatigue

Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.

Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.

Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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