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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.
Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.
Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.
The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.
Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.
The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.
BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.
Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk
Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag
Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting
Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag
Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics
Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain.
The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data.
Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache.
Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.
The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.
Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.
The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly.
Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative.
Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further.
Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist.
Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August.
Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable.
Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign.
Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky.
The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening.
Inflation slows at the margin in BraMex, but underlying pressures remain high and upside risks abound.
Chile’s inflation continues to head north, driven by a resilient domestic demand and external shocks.
The BCCh will continue to hike rates in Q3, but at a slower pace; inflation will start to edge down soon.
Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage
Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook
Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won
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