Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

domestic demand

12 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation Continues to Fall Rapidly in Brazil

  • Inflation in Brazil continued to fall rapidly in September, thanks to the lagged effect of tax cuts.
  • Softening domestic demand and tighter financial conditions are also helping to bring inflation down.
  • This is bringing comfort to policymakers, but high fiscal uncertainty will limit the room for manoeuvre.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Industrial Sector Likely will Contribute to GDP growth in H2

  • Brazil’s industrial sector was under pressure in August, but the near-term outlook is positive.
  • Improving domestic fundamentals likely will offset the drag from deteriorating external conditions.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Colombia, with the headline rate still climbing rapidly.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor July IGAE Showed a Resilient Mexican Economy, but Not for Long

  • Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
  • ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
  • Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor A Divided COPOM Ends the Hiking Cycle with a Hawkish Tone

  • Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
  • ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
  • Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Recovery is Petering Out in Colombia as Inflation Bites

  • Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
  • Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
  • The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor August's CPI Data in Brazil Are Good Enough to Prevent More Rate Hikes

  • The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
  • ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
  • Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile's Economy Struggles Ahead of the Constitutional Referendum

  • Chile’s labour market is under renewed strain and survey data point to a challenging H2...
  • ...High inflation, tighter financial conditions, increased interest rates, and elevated political risks are drags.
  • Chileans will vote on Sunday on a new constitution, but uncertainty will persist regardless.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Resilient Economic Activity in Peru, Despite Political Disruption

The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.

Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.

External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Impressive Economic Growth in H1 will Peter Out, Soon

Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.

The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.

BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Rebounding Despite an Array of Threats

Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk

Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag

Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2022 Battered by Deteriorating Domestic and External Conditions

Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting

Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag

Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 July 2022 LatAm CBs Likely will Continue to Hike in Q3, but Urgency will Ease

Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain. 

The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data. 

Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2022 Mexico's Trade Deficit Sank Further, due Mainly to High Oil Prices

Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.

The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.

Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 June 2022 Activity Remained Resilient in H1, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly. 

Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative. 

Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 June 2022 Inflation Pressures Ease a Bit in Brazil; Mexico's IGAE Rebounds

Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist. 

Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August. 

Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 June 2022 Headline Inflation is Peaking in BraMex

Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign. 

Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky. 

The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 June 2022 Inflation Continues to be a Pain to Policymakers, but It is Peaking

Inflation slows at the margin in BraMex, but underlying pressures remain high and upside risks abound.

Chile’s inflation continues to head north, driven by a resilient domestic demand and external shocks.

The BCCh will continue to hike rates in Q3, but at a slower pace; inflation will start to edge down soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2022 High Political Risk Limits the FX Rebound

Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage

Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook

Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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