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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

depreciation

18 May 2022 Colombia's Solid Recovery Continued in Q1, but the Pace is Unsustainable

Colombia’s solid recovery continued in Q1, thanks mainly to robust private consumption...

...But momentum is already fading on a sequential basis, due to deteriorating domestic fundamentals.

High inflation, tighter monetary policy, and deteriorating external conditions will be key drags.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 May 2022 LatAm Central Banks in a Big Dilemma

Rising export prices continue to support growth, but they are also driving higher-than-expected inflation.

Global inflation pressures from food and energy will keep restrictive bias on monetary policy.

Most countries will continue to tighten, despite the absence of domestic demand-driven inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 May 2022 The Recovery in Households' Spending in Brazil Will Slow Soon

Retail sales in Brazil rebounded in Q1, despite high inflation and tighter financial conditions...

...The reopening and further fiscal support have driven the recovery, but momentum will ease soon.

The real income squeeze and further interest rate hikes will hurt, but consumption won't collapse.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 May 2022 FX Under Pressure as Correction Takes Hold

Brazilian Real — Under pressure as the USD rebounds

Colombian Peso — Correcting due to high uncertainty

Chilean Peso — Elevated domestic and external risk

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Mar 2022 Banxico Casts a Unanimous and Bold Rate Hike; Inflation is Too High

  • Banxico delivers a bold and unanimous rate hike, as inflation remains too high, and the outlook worsens.
  • The door for more rate hikes remains wide open, we now expect a more aggressive tightening cycle. 
  • Retail sales in Mexico started Q1 on a strong footing, but momentum will ease soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Feb 2022 Inflation Remains High in Argentina, and the Outlook is Grim

  • Inflation pressures in Argentina remained elevated at the start of Q2, despite a modest slowing.
  • Indexation and the weak ARS will hold inflation up over the coming months, despite price controls.
  • An agreement with the IMF likely will emerge soon, but erratic policies will continue to sap confidence.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Feb 2022 A Mixed Political Picture Across the Region

Brazil — Mr. Lula is trying to win back the centre

Chile — Political risk continues to ease, for now

Peru — Jumping from one crisis to another

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Feb 2022 Supported by Rising Commodity Prices

  • Brazilian Real — A solid commodity-driven rally
  • Colombian Peso — Supported by rising oil prices
  • Chilean Peso — Political risks ease, for now

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Jan 2022 Mexico's Disinflation Continues, but Core Pressures Remain a Threat

  • Mexican headline inflation continues to edge down, but it’s too soon for a dovish shift from Banxico.
  • Core pressures persist and the near term remains tough, due to both external and domestic forces.
  • Colombia's domestic demand recovery continues, but it is faltering in Peru, following a solid H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Jan 2022 Omicron Cases are Rocketing, will they Dent LatAm's Recovery in H1

  • Omicron is spreading like wildfire in LatAm, but tighter health restrictions likely will be avoided.
  • Inflation in the Andes will peak soon, but momen- tum in the core will persist in H1.
  • Central banks will continue to tighten over coming meetings as inflation risks remain to the upside.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Jan 2022 Mexican Inflation at a 21-Year High, But a Downtrend will Emerge Soon

  • Mexican inflation was high at year-end, but it has peaked, as temporary shocks gradually ease. 
  • Upside risks remain, though, due mostly to core pressures; Banxico will respond by hiking rates in H1. 
  • Peru's BCRP increased interest rates on Thursday; inflation is rising rapidly and risks are to the upside. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Dec 2021 Mexican Industry is Still Under Strain, Despite a Solid Start to Q4

The Mexican industrial sector started Q4 quite strongly, but the sector is still struggling.

Conditions likely will improve next year, as the chip crisis fades, but other drags will constrain activity.

Peru's central bank continues to normalise mone- tary policy; more is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Dec 2021 Rising Core Inflation in the Andes will Force Policymakers to Keep Hiking

  • Rapidly rising inflation in Colombia raises the odds of a bolder rate hike by BanRep next week.
  • Monetary tightening will continue next year; domestic politics and the twin deficit are threats.
  • Inflation in Peru edged lower in November, but expectations for further tightening remain intact.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Nov 2021 November's Inflation Data in Brazil Should Not Trouble the COPOM

  • Higher gasoline prices in Brazil likely won't derail the imminent drop in IPCA inflation as other shocks ease. 

    The lagged effect of tighter monetary policy will also put a lid on underlying inflation pressures. 

    Mexican markets under stress following AMLO's announcement of a new nominee as Banxico's head. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Nov 2021 More Pain Ahead in Argentina, despite the Midterm Election Result

  • The midterm election result in Argentina has diminished the chances of a Peronist second term.
  • The ruling coalition, FdT, has lost the Senate; it will have to negotiate with JpC to implement key policies.
  • The economy will continue to suffer in the near term; a deal with IMF is badly needed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Oct 2021 Increased Policy and Economic Uncertainty in the Southern Cone

  • Presidential and Congressional elections in Chile are fast approaching, and the race remains wide open.
  • Argentina's inflation rebounded sharply in August, despite the government's efforts to limit the upturn.
  • The reopening of the economy and unorthodox policies will keep inflation too high for comfort.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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