Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

deficit

21 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Payback Continues to Unfold in Chile; When will it Stop?

  • Chile’s recovery continued to stall in Q3, due mostly to plunging domestic demand.
  • Conditions will remain difficult in the near term, forcing the BCCh to cut rates early next year.
  • The current account deficit has ballooned, but a correction is now underway; the risk will ease soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor July IGAE Showed a Resilient Mexican Economy, but Not for Long

  • Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
  • ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
  • Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Activity was Sturdy in H1 in Mexico and Argentina, but Risks Abound

  • Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
  • Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
  • Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Noise Improves at the Margin

  • Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
  • Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
  • Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Activity is Solid in Brazil, Inflation is Galloping in Argentina

  • Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
  • ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
  • Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Manufacturing Continues to Shoulder the Industrial Recovery

  • Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
  • Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
  • The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Rebounding Despite an Array of Threats

Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk

Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag

Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 July 2022 Latin America Monitor High Inflation is Denting the Upturn in Mexico and Argentina

The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.

Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...

...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 July 2022 Argentina's Never-ending Crisis

Alberto Fernández cedes the management of the Argentine economy to Kirchnerism; terrible news. 

The new finance minister will likely double down on unorthodox measures; the outlook will worsen. 

Chile’s government presents an ambitious, but well telegraphed, fiscal reform plan; no concerns, for now. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2022 Mexico's Trade Deficit Sank Further, due Mainly to High Oil Prices

Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.

The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.

Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 June 2022 Colombia's New President will Face an Economic Downturn Soon

Colombia’s new president will find an economy in good shape, with output well above pre-Covid levels. 

The good news, however, won’t last; high inflation and tighter financial conditions are now key threats. 

The new leader will have to tackle poverty, popular discontent, and long-standing structural issues. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 June 2022 Colombia's Inflation Remains a Headache, Despite Easing in May

Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.

Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 May 2022 The Economic Outlook for Argentina and Peru is Deteriorating Rapidly

Argentina’s economic recovery stalled in March, and conditions are deteriorating rapidly.

High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy in to a technical recession in Q2.

The Peruvian economy struggled in March, but it dodge a recession, thanks to a solid start to Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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