Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
debt
- Rising commodity prices will support key economic sectors in Argentina, but inflation will remain high.
- The Senate approved a new agreement with the IMF, conjuring up the spectre of default.
- The program will try to stop the runaway inflation, but underlying conditions will remain challenging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru's economy ended the year on a soft note, but the details show that domestic demand is rising.
- Momentum however, will ease over H1, on the back of high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
- Argentina's central bank tightens monetary policy further, but more will have to be done.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation pressures in Argentina remained elevated at the start of Q2, despite a modest slowing.
- Indexation and the weak ARS will hold inflation up over the coming months, despite price controls.
- An agreement with the IMF likely will emerge soon, but erratic policies will continue to sap confidence.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A robust start to the year, but risks prevail
- Chile — A potential orthodox Boric appeases investors
- Peru — The rebound continues, despite politics
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's COPOM delivered a well-telegraphed bold rate hike, aiming to push inflation expectations lower.
- It also sent a clear signal that it plans to reduce the pace of monetary tightening, as conditions improve.
- Brazil posted its first primary surplus since 2013, but the good news won't last.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — A solid commodity-driven rally
- Colombian Peso — Supported by rising oil prices
- Chilean Peso — Political risks ease, for now
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The trend in Mexican retail sales accelerated in Q4, but downside risks still prevail in the very near term.
- Rising interest rates will be a key drag, but decent remittances from abroad will prevent a collapse.
- The external accounts had a poor performance in 2021, but the hit from global supply issues is easing.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The recovery in commodity prices should strengthen LatAm public finances and external accounts.
- Capex will also rise this year, if the commodity uptrend is sustained; political risk, however, is a drag.
- A sustained rebound in prices would also keep inflation high, complicating some central banks' plans.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico: A decent recovery ahead, but risks abound.
- Colombia: Politics will limit the rebound in Q1
- Chile: Near-term volatility driven by politics.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Sunday's run-off between leftist Gabriel Boric and the right-win JoseÌÂ Antonio Kast is anyone’s race.
Polls suggest that Mr. Boric will win, by a small margin; if this is the case, markets won't be happy.
We expect challenging times ahead, but conditions will improve as his presidency progresses; we hope.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
-
Higher gasoline prices in Brazil likely won't derail the imminent drop in IPCA inflation as other shocks ease.
The lagged effect of tighter monetary policy will also put a lid on underlying inflation pressures.
Mexican markets under stress following AMLO's announcement of a new nominee as Banxico's head.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Unstable political environment persists
- Colombia — Dissatisfaction is driving the undecided
- Chile — Will the country move to the left or right?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The midterm election result in Argentina has diminished the chances of a Peronist second term.
- The ruling coalition, FdT, has lost the Senate; it will have to negotiate with JpC to implement key policies.
- The economy will continue to suffer in the near term; a deal with IMF is badly needed.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hurt by rising fiscal uncertainty
- Argentina — Calm before the storm
- Peru — Castillo is digging himself into a deeper hole
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Bra- zil, as inflation surges and political risk rises.
- The fiscal picture is set to worsen, as the spending cap likely will be altered; the BRL is suffering.
- The COPOM will be forced to tighten ever further; inflation will fall as the economy falls into recession.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
