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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

debt

22 Mar 2022 Argentina's Senate Approves the IMF Deal, but Uncertainty will Prevail

  • Rising commodity prices will support key economic sectors in Argentina, but inflation will remain high.
  • The Senate approved a new agreement with the IMF, conjuring up the spectre of default.
  • The program will try to stop the runaway inflation, but underlying conditions will remain challenging.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Feb 2022 Peru's Economy Ended Q4 Strongly, but the Outlook is Deteriorating

  • Peru's economy ended the year on a soft note, but the details show that domestic demand is rising.
  • Momentum however, will ease over H1, on the back of high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
  • Argentina's central bank tightens monetary policy further, but more will have to be done.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Feb 2022 Inflation Remains High in Argentina, and the Outlook is Grim

  • Inflation pressures in Argentina remained elevated at the start of Q2, despite a modest slowing.
  • Indexation and the weak ARS will hold inflation up over the coming months, despite price controls.
  • An agreement with the IMF likely will emerge soon, but erratic policies will continue to sap confidence.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Feb 2022 LatAm Stocks Boosted by Commodity Prices

  • Brazil — A robust start to the year, but risks prevail
  • Chile — A potential orthodox Boric appeases investors
  • Peru — The rebound continues, despite politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Feb 2022 The COPOM Continues to Tighten, but What is Next for Policymakers

  • Brazil's COPOM delivered a well-telegraphed bold rate hike, aiming to push inflation expectations lower.
  • It also sent a clear signal that it plans to reduce the pace of monetary tightening, as conditions improve.
  • Brazil posted its first primary surplus since 2013, but the good news won't last.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Feb 2022 Supported by Rising Commodity Prices

  • Brazilian Real — A solid commodity-driven rally
  • Colombian Peso — Supported by rising oil prices
  • Chilean Peso — Political risks ease, for now

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Jan 2022 Mexico's Retail Sector Remains Resilient, but Q1 will be a Write-of

  • The trend in Mexican retail sales accelerated in Q4, but downside risks still prevail in the very near term.
  • Rising interest rates will be a key drag, but decent remittances from abroad will prevent a collapse.
  • The external accounts had a poor performance in 2021, but the hit from global supply issues is easing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Jan 2022 Are Rising Commodity Prices a Blessing or Curse for LatAm

  • The recovery in commodity prices should strengthen LatAm public finances and external accounts.
  • Capex will also rise this year, if the commodity uptrend is sustained; political risk, however, is a drag.
  • A sustained rebound in prices would also keep inflation high, complicating some central banks' plans.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Dec 2021 Volatility will persist in the near term

- Mexico: A decent recovery ahead, but risks abound.
- Colombia: Politics will limit the rebound in Q1
- Chile: Near-term volatility driven by politics.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Dec 2021 A Nail-Biting Second Round in Chile on Sunday; Mr. Boric Likely will Win

Sunday's run-off between leftist Gabriel Boric and the right-win José Antonio Kast is anyone’s race.

Polls suggest that Mr. Boric will win, by a small margin; if this is the case, markets won't be happy.

We expect challenging times ahead, but conditions will improve as his presidency progresses; we hope.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Nov 2021 November's Inflation Data in Brazil Should Not Trouble the COPOM

  • Higher gasoline prices in Brazil likely won't derail the imminent drop in IPCA inflation as other shocks ease. 

    The lagged effect of tighter monetary policy will also put a lid on underlying inflation pressures. 

    Mexican markets under stress following AMLO's announcement of a new nominee as Banxico's head. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Nov 2021 The Clouds are Gathering on LatAm Politics

  • Brazil — Unstable political environment persists    
  • Colombia — Dissatisfaction is driving the undecided
  • Chile — Will the country move to the left or right?

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Nov 2021 More Pain Ahead in Argentina, despite the Midterm Election Result

  • The midterm election result in Argentina has diminished the chances of a Peronist second term.
  • The ruling coalition, FdT, has lost the Senate; it will have to negotiate with JpC to implement key policies.
  • The economy will continue to suffer in the near term; a deal with IMF is badly needed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Nov 2021 Under Pressure Due to Rising Inflation and Policy Risk

  • Brazil — Hurt by rising fiscal uncertainty
  • Argentina — Calm before the storm
  • Peru — Castillo is digging himself into a deeper hole

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 Nov 2021 Brazil is in a Mess, Thanks to High Inflation, and Mr. Bolsonaro

  • Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Bra- zil, as inflation surges and political risk rises.
  • The fiscal picture is set to worsen, as the spending cap likely will be altered; the BRL is suffering.
  • The COPOM will be forced to tighten ever further; inflation will fall as the economy falls into recession.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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