- In one line: Disinflation underway, despite increased fiscal risks.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Finally responding to tight financing conditions and the CLP’s rebound.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation continues, but Lula-driven policy noise remains a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation is losing speed; retailers are struggling.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
- Mexico — A solid start to the year
- Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Still falling, but the downtrend is losing speed.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Overshooting expectations, but a downtrend will emerge soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
The Argentinian economy is resilient, but the survey data tell a clear story of slowing growth in H1.
Households have been able to muddle through this year, but inflation is fast approaching 100%.
Deteriorating fundamentals suggest that the ruling coalition will lose the presidency in 2023.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Economic activity remains relatively resilient in Peru, despite a deteriorating political backdrop.
Growth momentum will continue to slow over H1, due to high inflation and high interest rates...
...But the economy won’t collapse; relatively solid check-and-balances will prevent a nightmare.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly, for now.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Mexico’s economic activity was resilient in Q3, but this is in stark contrast to survey data.
Manufacturing and services activity are showing early signs of fatigue; 2023 will be difficult.
The current account slid to 1.6% of GDP, but FDI saved the day; we expect a gradual correction in H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, but increased fiscal uncertainty remains a threat.
Headline inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside again in November, but the core remains sticky.
Softening demand, favourable base effects and high interest rates will push core inflation down soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s inflation woes continue, despite a marginal improvement on a sequential basis.
- High indexation means more trouble ahead, offsetting the government’s efforts to control prices.
- The BCRA will be able to stay on the sidelines, for now, thanks to the less grim sequential data.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s recovery continued to stall in Q3, due mostly to plunging domestic demand.
- Conditions will remain difficult in the near term, forcing the BCCh to cut rates early next year.
- The current account deficit has ballooned, but a correction is now underway; the risk will ease soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s recovery continued in H2, but risks are tilted to the downside, due chiefly to high interest rates.
- Peru’s central bank increased interest rates last week, and left the door open to further tightening...
- ...But it will move to the sidelines soon, as inflation is finally falling, and economic activity stutters.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Industrial output in Mexico is edging lower, and the sector faces a cloudy domestic and external outlook.
- Tighter financial conditions and the weakening of the U.S. economy are key threats.
- Slowing manufacturing, falling inflation and the MXN rebound, will allow Banxico to hold rates in Q1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The market is watching for signs of policy orthodoxy in Brazil as a new economic team is appointed.
- Inflation continues to fall rapidly, thanks chiefly to the lagged effect of tax cuts; will the downtrend continue?
- Retail sales firmed at the end of Q3, thanks mainly to falling inflation and a resilient job market.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Banxico stuck to the script and increased the main rate by 75bp, to push inflation expectations down…
- …But the tightening cycle will probably be over next month, as better news in CPI inflation keeps coming.
- Data this week confirmed that the inflation peak was in Q3; disinflation will consolidate during H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation continues, despite the overshoot to consensus.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Chile is heading south, thanks to falling commodity prices and tighter financial conditions.
- Easing pressures in the pipeline suggest that inflation will continue to edge down over the coming months.
- Peru’s inflation is falling too, which likely will allow policymakers to move to the sidelines this week.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
