- In one line: Inflation is still easing; good news for a still-hawkish Banxico.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation is finally coming back down to earth.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Elevated indexation keep inflation high in January.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A bad start to the year, mainly due to high indexation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent end to the year, with core pressures finally receding.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: First signs that core inflation is slowing, at the margin.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, but core remains sticky, for now.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, but increased fiscal uncertainty remains a threat.
Headline inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside again in November, but the core remains sticky.
Softening demand, favourable base effects and high interest rates will push core inflation down soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Banxico stuck to the script and increased the main rate by 75bp, to push inflation expectations down…
- …But the tightening cycle will probably be over next month, as better news in CPI inflation keeps coming.
- Data this week confirmed that the inflation peak was in Q3; disinflation will consolidate during H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Headline inflation is finally starting to soften.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- August’s inflation data in Mexico and Chile brought a sigh of relief to policymakers...
- ...But core inflation remains sticky, overshooting their forecast; a slowing economy will bring it down in Q1.
- We think Peru's BCRP wrapped up the tightening cycle last week; the BCCh will stay on hold this week.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
- ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
- Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
- Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
- Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
- ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
- Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
- ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
- Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
- The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
