Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core cpi

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, January, 2023

  • In one line: Elevated indexation keep inflation high in January.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, December, 2022

  • In one line: A decent end to the year, with core pressures finally receding.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, November, 2022

  • In one line: First signs that core inflation is slowing, at the margin.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, November, 2022

  • In one line: Undershooting expectations, but core remains sticky, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor The Inflation Picture Continues to Improve in Brazil... and Mexico, Just

Inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, but increased fiscal uncertainty remains a threat. 

Headline inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside again in November, but the core remains sticky. 

Softening demand, favourable base effects and high interest rates will push core inflation down soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor Banxico's Tightening Cycle will End Soon

  • Banxico stuck to the script and increased the main rate by 75bp, to push inflation expectations down…
  • …But the tightening cycle will probably be over next month, as better news in CPI inflation keeps coming.
  • Data this week confirmed that the inflation peak was in Q3; disinflation will consolidate during H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor August's Inflation Data in Mexico and Chile Brought Relief to Policymakers

  • August’s inflation data in Mexico and Chile brought a sigh of relief to policymakers...
  • ...But core inflation remains sticky, overshooting their forecast; a slowing economy will bring it down in Q1.
  • We think Peru's BCRP wrapped up the tightening cycle last week; the BCCh will stay on hold this week. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor A Divided COPOM Ends the Hiking Cycle with a Hawkish Tone

  • Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
  • ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
  • Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Slowing GDP Growth in the Andes will Make Central Banks Uneasy

  • Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
  • Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
  • Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Activity is Solid in Brazil, Inflation is Galloping in Argentina

  • Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
  • ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
  • Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor August's CPI Data in Brazil Are Good Enough to Prevent More Rate Hikes

  • The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
  • ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
  • Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence