Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Chile's economy remains resilient thanks, to a solid vaccination program and robust policy support.
- Solid retail sales get Q4 consumption off to a very strong start, but momentum will ease soon.
- Challenging external conditions, high inflation, and political noise will limit the recovery in H1.
- The Omicron-sparked sell-off is easing; LatAm is watching closely, after dealing with Delta.
- Supply disruptions have driven Mexico's external accounts into the red; the outlook for H1 is grim.
- The Delta hit in Q3 and increased political risk have scared away investors; outflows are substantial.
- LatAm markets hit as new Covid strain spooks investors driving a safe-haven assets move.
- The Mexican economy performed poorly in Q3, due chiefly to the Delta wave hit to the services sector.
- The recovery will resume soon, but 20-year high inflation and increased policy risk will limit the upturn.
Higher gasoline prices in Brazil likely won't derail the imminent drop in IPCA inflation as other shocks ease.
The lagged effect of tighter monetary policy will also put a lid on underlying inflation pressures.
Mexican markets under stress following AMLO's announcement of a new nominee as Banxico's head.
- Retail sales in Mexico recovered at the margin in late Q3, but not quite reversing the July drop.
- We expect a modest rebound in Q4, thanks to the reopening, but rising inflation will remain a drag.
- Decent remittances from abroad, and an improving labour market, will prevent a protracted downtrend.
- Chilean GDP growth accelerated in Q3, but the strong data are backward-looking; 2022 looks shaky.
- Tighter fiscal and monetary policies likely will put the economy on the verge of a technical recession.
- Even assuming a Kast win, political risk will persist; the constitutional process will remain a threat.
- Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
- Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
- Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.
- An array of shocks, including high inflation, have stopped the Brazilian recovery in its tracks since Q2.
- We expect a modest recovery in Q4, but risks remain massively tilted to the downside.
- A resilient recovery, increased institutional risk, and high inflation will force Peru's BCRP to keep hiking.
- High inflation, lingering supply shocks and tighter financial conditions, are weighing on Mexico's output.
- Some of the shocks will ease soon, but soaring energy prices and policy uncertainty will remain drags.
- Improving global demand and the U.S. infrastructure bill will support the manufacturing upturn next year.
- Banxico continues to tighten in an effort to anchor inflation expectations and to protect the MXN.
- Inflation in Brazil surprised to the upside in October; the COPOM likely will hike further in the near term.
- Tighter monetary policy, less-harsh base effects, and the sluggish economy, will push inflation down soon.
- Brazil — Hurt by rising fiscal uncertainty
- Argentina — Calm before the storm
- Peru — Castillo is digging himself into a deeper hole
- Inflation in Mexico is still rising rapidly, boosted by higher energy tariffs, and the reopening.
- The near-term outlook remains challenging and infla- tion expectations will continue to head north.
- Banxico will continue to hike in the near term, but gradually, due to the stuttering economic recovery.
- Inflation continues to rebound in Chile, on the back of the reopening, and higher commodity prices.
- The near-term remains challenging, which will force the BCCh to tighten rapidly over the next meetings.
- Conditions likely will improve by mid-Q1, assuming political risks ease at the margin after November 21.
- Colombia's inflation undershoots in October, thanks to the VAT-free day, but the good news won’t persist.
- BanRep will have to continue normalising monetary policy over the first half of next year.
- Inflation in Peru is running hot, and the near-term outlook is grim, the BCRP will hike boldly this week.
Brazilian Real — Fiscal uncertainty is back
Mexican Peso — Populist AMLO is a key drag
Peruvian New Sol — Castillo's chaotic start
- Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Bra- zil, as inflation surges and political risk rises.
- The fiscal picture is set to worsen, as the spending cap likely will be altered; the BRL is suffering.
- The COPOM will be forced to tighten ever further; inflation will fall as the economy falls into recession.
- Brazil — Legal storm clouds gather over Bolsonaro
- Mexico — AMLO's power reform is a big threat
- Chile — The election race enters its final stage
- Presidential and Congressional elections in Chile are fast approaching, and the race remains wide open.
- Argentina's inflation rebounded sharply in August, despite the government's efforts to limit the upturn.
- The reopening of the economy and unorthodox policies will keep inflation too high for comfort.
- A perfect storm continues to build in Chile for interest rates to surge beyond neutrality.
- For Chile—as for most of LatAm—higher commodity prices have coincided with increased political risk.
- Domestic demand remains resilient, but high infla- tion and tighter policy will dent the recovery soon.
- Colombia — Supported by the global energy crisis
- Chile — In the hands of the pension withdrawal
- Peru — Cabinet reshuffle boost financial markets