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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...
...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.
Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.
A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...
...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.
The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.
Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain.
The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data.
Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache.
Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist.
Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August.
Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable.
The COPOM eased the pace of tightening, but has left the door open to further hikes in Q3.
The deteriorating external inflation outlook has been forcing the Board to tweak its plans since May.
We now expect a final rate hike in August to anchor inflation expectations, if external conditions improve.
Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.
The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.
Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.
Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign.
Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky.
The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening.
Inflation remains a headache for policymakers, but conditions likely will improve at the margin in Q3.
Food inflation remains a key upside risk, forcing governments to implement unconventional steps.
This will probably help in the near term, but will slow the disinflation trend next year.
Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.
Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.
Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.
Retail sales in Brazil rebounded in Q1, despite high inflation and tighter financial conditions...
...The reopening and further fiscal support have driven the recovery, but momentum will ease soon.
The real income squeeze and further interest rate hikes will hurt, but consumption won't collapse.
The COPOM increased rates by 100bp, as widely expected, but has tweaked its near-term plans...
...It has opened the door for a hike of “lower magnitude” in June; this will be the last of the cycle.
Inflation in Peru is running wild despite the implementation of subsidies; the BCRP will hike next week.
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