- In one line: A solid start to the year, but further monetary tightening is a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A resilient economy; the BCCh will remain on alert.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Improving services activity save the day, but conditions remain challenging for H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor November headline, and growth will soften further.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
- Mexico — A solid start to the year
- Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprisingly resilient on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, but risks are tilted to the downside.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprisingly strong, but a downtrend will emerge soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Ugly, but we expect a resilient economy in Q4.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good start to Q3, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
- Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
- Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
- Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
- ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
- Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
- Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
- Chile — Political questions not abating
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
- Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
- Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
- Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
- The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
- The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
- Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
- Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
