Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation.
CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices.
Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat.
June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.
Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.
Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.
Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.
The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.
Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
Banxico hiked rates to a record 8.50%, but the pace of tightening will slow over the next few meetings.
A struggling economy and peaking inflation has allowed the Bank to dial-back its hawkish language.
The near-term policy outlook, however, is still uncertain, dependent on global conditions and the Fed.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.
Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.
Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4
Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.
Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.
AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.
Inflationary pressures remain elevated in Mexico, but the headline rate will probably peak soon.
Banxico minutes emphasize that policymakers are determined to bring down inflation in H2.
Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly; the near-term outlook remains challenging, due to strong demand.
Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere.
Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers.
The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly.
Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative.
Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further.
Brazilian retailers enjoyed a solid start to Q2, but momentum is already easing in some components.
The Mexican industrial sector remains solid, but the outlook has deteriorated, due mainly to high inflation.
The plunge in China’s PMIs and lingering external shocks point to potential trouble ahead.
Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign.
Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky.
The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence