Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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26 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Activity was Sturdy in H1 in Mexico and Argentina, but Risks Abound

  • Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
  • Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
  • Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Slowing GDP Growth in the Andes will Make Central Banks Uneasy

  • Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
  • Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
  • Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Activity is Solid in Brazil, Inflation is Galloping in Argentina

  • Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
  • ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
  • Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Services Sector Continues to Fire on all Cylinders

  • Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
  • Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
  • Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is Yet to Peak, but in Peru the Downtrend has Started

  • Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
  • Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
  • Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Inflation is Falling Rapidly, but it is Sticky in Mexico

Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation. 

CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices. 

Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor June's Retail Sales Figures in Mexico are Raising Red Flags

June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.

Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.

Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Banxico Keeps Hiking Rates, but the Pace Likely will Ease Soon

Banxico hiked rates to a record 8.50%, but the pace of tightening will slow over the next few meetings.

A struggling economy and peaking inflation has allowed the Bank to dial-back its hawkish language.

The near-term policy outlook, however, is still uncertain, dependent on global conditions and the Fed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Economy Shows Signs of Fatigue

Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.

Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.

Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2022 Manufacturing Remains a Key Support for GDP Growth in Mexico

Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.

Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.

AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 July 2022 Inflation Remains a Headache for Banxico, but it Will Peak Soon

Inflationary pressures remain elevated in Mexico, but the headline rate will probably peak soon.

Banxico minutes emphasize that policymakers are determined to bring down inflation in H2.

Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly; the near-term outlook remains challenging, due to strong demand.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 July 2022 May Industrial Data Confirm that Brazil's Recovery Remains on Track

Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere. 

Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers. 

The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 June 2022 Activity Remained Resilient in H1, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

The rebound in commodity prices supported LatAm in H1, but external conditions are worsening rapidly. 

Argentina’s economic recovery consolidated in Q1, but the near-term outlook is negative. 

Inflation is still rising rapidly, and inflation expectations are heading north; rates will be hiked further. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 June 2022 Retail Activity Remains Sturdy in Brazil, Mexican IP is still Recovering

Brazilian retailers enjoyed a solid start to Q2, but momentum is already easing in some components.

The Mexican industrial sector remains solid, but the outlook has deteriorated, due mainly to high inflation.

The plunge in China’s PMIs and lingering external shocks point to potential trouble ahead.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 June 2022 Headline Inflation is Peaking in BraMex

Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign. 

Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky. 

The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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