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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

commodity prices

9 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile and Peru is Finally Falling; a Big Relief for Policymakers

  • Inflation in Chile is heading south, thanks to falling commodity prices and tighter financial conditions.
  • Easing pressures in the pipeline suggest that inflation will continue to edge down over the coming months.
  • Peru’s inflation is falling too, which likely will allow policymakers to move to the sidelines this week.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor A Divided COPOM Ends the Hiking Cycle with a Hawkish Tone

  • Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
  • ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
  • Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Recovery is Petering Out in Colombia as Inflation Bites

  • Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
  • Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
  • The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Activity is Solid in Brazil, Inflation is Galloping in Argentina

  • Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
  • ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
  • Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Global Inflation Risks Have Spooked LatAm Markets

  • Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
  • Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
  • Chile — Political questions not abating

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Services Sector Continues to Fire on all Cylinders

  • Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
  • Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
  • Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor August's CPI Data in Brazil Are Good Enough to Prevent More Rate Hikes

  • The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
  • ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
  • Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is Yet to Peak, but in Peru the Downtrend has Started

  • Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
  • Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
  • Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile Resoundingly Rejects Mr. Boric's New Constitution; Now What?

  • Voters in Chile have overwhelmingly rejected a new constitution; now it is time for a moderate approach.
  • Inflation in Colombia is still running hot, due mostly to food prices and a robust domestic demand.
  • BanRep will continue to hike rates this year, but we still believe that inflation will start to fall in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Inflation is Falling Rapidly, but it is Sticky in Mexico

Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation. 

CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices. 

Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Impressive Economic Growth in H1 will Peter Out, Soon

Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.

The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.

BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Rebounding Despite an Array of Threats

Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk

Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag

Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Banxico Keeps Hiking Rates, but the Pace Likely will Ease Soon

Banxico hiked rates to a record 8.50%, but the pace of tightening will slow over the next few meetings.

A struggling economy and peaking inflation has allowed the Bank to dial-back its hawkish language.

The near-term policy outlook, however, is still uncertain, dependent on global conditions and the Fed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Underlying Inflation Pressures Force More Rate Hikes in LatAm

Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...

...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.

Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 July 2022 Latin America Monitor A Disinflation Trend Emerges in Brazil, Thanks to Recent Measures

 A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...

...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.

The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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