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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?
Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO
Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports
Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation.
CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices.
Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat.
Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.
The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.
Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.
The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.
BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.
Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk
Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag
Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
Banxico hiked rates to a record 8.50%, but the pace of tightening will slow over the next few meetings.
A struggling economy and peaking inflation has allowed the Bank to dial-back its hawkish language.
The near-term policy outlook, however, is still uncertain, dependent on global conditions and the Fed.
Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...
...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.
Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...
...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.
The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.
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