Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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21 Sept 2021 July Activity was Solid in the Andes, but Political Risk is the Narrative

  • July activity was firm in Peru, but the slowdown narrative remains, due to increased political risk.
  • Capex likely will suffer next year, if the government takes a misstep; a downtrend is already emerging.
  • Chile's central bank minutes set the table for further bold rate hikes, neutrality is around the corner.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2021 Retail Activity in Brazil Rebounded in July, but Momentum will Ease Soon

  • Brazil's retail sector started Q3 on a solid footing, thanks to lower Covid cases and further fiscal aid.
  • The recovery, however, still looks set to slow over the coming months, as inflation picks up.
  • A solid start to Q3 for Mexico's industrial sector, despite weakening survey data.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2021 BanRep Feels the Pressure from Accelerating Inflation; it will Act Soon

  • Inflation in Colombia rose sharply in most of Q3, de- spite a stuttering economic rebound in H1.
  • The FX sell-off and rising commodity prices will make life more difficult for behind-the-curve BanRep.
  • The economic recovery stalled in Q2, due mainly to social unrest; it will improve soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 Sept 2021 Chile's Retail Sector Started Q3 Strongly, Mining is Struggling

  • Chile's economy started the second half on a strong note; activity will continue to pick up steam.
  • The economy is rebounding, thanks to massive fiscal support and the improving Covid picture.
  • The labour market recovery continued in July, and leading indicators point to further strength in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Aug 2021 Brazil's Retail Sector, and Mexico's Manufacturing Stalled in late Q2

Consumers' spending in Brazil ended Q2 poorly, but it will improve soon as virus restrictions ease.

Mexico's industrial production fell in June, due mainly to the continued troubles in the auto sector.

Conditions will improve in the second half of the year, but supply-side disruptions will remain a drag.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Aug 2021 Stocks Under Pressure Due to High Political Risk and Rising Inflation Pressures

Mexico — Doing well, despite many challenges

Chile — Politics and copper prices cap the upturn

Peru — Political uncertainty will remain a drag

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Aug 2021 Core Inflation is Still Rising in Mexico, due to the Reopening of the Economy

Mexico's core inflation is at cyclical highs and rising; the reopening of the economy is mostly responsible.

Inflation will stay well above Banxico's target range over H2, forcing policymakers to hike interest rates.

Fixed investment and private consumption continued to recover in Q2, the near-term outlook is positive.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Aug 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggled in Q2, but Conditions will Improve Soon

Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.

That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.

Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Aug 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but it will Hike Soon, as Inflation Bites

Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.

Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.

Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Aug 2021 Mexico's Recovery Continues, as Spending on Services Ramps Up

Mexico's economy gathered speed in Q2, thanks to solid services activity and despite one-off shocks.

Manufacturing activity has stalled, due to global supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise soon.

Further good news from Chile's retail sector and manufacturing ended Q2 on a solid footing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 July 2021 Mr Castillo's Bittersweet Speech Packs Few Punches for Markets

Left-wing Mr. Castillo is sworn in as president of Peru; the inaugural speech provokes mixed reviews...

...But the opposition will lead Congress, easing the risks of populist policies under his rule.

Brazil's labour market conditions continued to im- prove at a rapid pace in Q2, but threats remain.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 July 2021 Inflation in Brazil Started Q3 Badly; Electricity Tariffs Remain a Problem

Inflation in Brazil started Q3 badly, due mainly to higher electricity tariffs as weather conditions bite.

Mexico’s retail sector remains resilient, thanks to the reopening of the economy; the outlook is benign.

GDP growth likely was about 1.8% in the second quarter, and momentum will gather speed in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2021 Peru's Economic Activity on its Way to Pre-crisis Levels After a Poor Q1

Peru's economic recovery resumed in May, following a poor performance in the three previous months, due to the worsening of the pandemic, and increased political/ policy risk.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 July 2021 Colombia's Economy was on the Ropes in Q2, due to the Protests

May's activity data underline the dramatic effect of the social unrest in Colombia’s economic growth. The latest data show that retail sales, excluding the volatile fuel and vehicles components, plunged 4.1% month- to-month in June, following a 10.7% collapse in April ,when mobility restrictions were in place.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 July 2021 Chile's Central Bank Joins the Monetary Tightening

Chile's central bank has joined the bandwagon of monetary policy normalisation that started in the region with Brazil and Brigade has expanded, more recently, to Banxico. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 July 2021 Will Brazil's Private Consumption Recovery Continue in H2?

May's official retail sales figures in Brazil have supported renewed optimism on the outlook for the sector, following a downtrend in Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 July 2021 Mexico's Capex Recovery Stuttered in Early Q2, but it will Improve Soon

Recent private consumption indicators in Mexico have been positive, thanks to the gradual reopening of the economy, due to decent progress in vaccine rollout and lower Covid cases.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 July 2021 Colombia's Investment Grade Days are Over; Chile's Recovery is on Track

Colombia lost its coveted investment-grade rating
on Thursday, after Fitch became the second agency
to downgrade the country’s debt to junk status, citing concerns about the deterioration of the public finances with large fiscal deficits in 2020-to-2022, a rising government debt, and reduced confidence over the capacity of the government to credibly reduce the debt in the coming years. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 June 2021 Banxico Hikes Interest Rates, Trying to Lower Inflation Expectations

Mexican policymakers have voted by a majority to increase the main rate by 25bp to 4.25%, to counter underlying inflation pressures, as the recovery is gathering speed and external conditions are turning more challenging for EM.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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