Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

clothing Argentina

13 Aug 2021 Brazil's Retail Sector, and Mexico's Manufacturing Stalled in late Q2

Consumers' spending in Brazil ended Q2 poorly, but it will improve soon as virus restrictions ease.

Mexico's industrial production fell in June, due mainly to the continued troubles in the auto sector.

Conditions will improve in the second half of the year, but supply-side disruptions will remain a drag.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Aug 2021 Stocks Under Pressure Due to High Political Risk and Rising Inflation Pressures

Mexico — Doing well, despite many challenges

Chile — Politics and copper prices cap the upturn

Peru — Political uncertainty will remain a drag

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Aug 2021 Core Inflation is Still Rising in Mexico, due to the Reopening of the Economy

Mexico's core inflation is at cyclical highs and rising; the reopening of the economy is mostly responsible.

Inflation will stay well above Banxico's target range over H2, forcing policymakers to hike interest rates.

Fixed investment and private consumption continued to recover in Q2, the near-term outlook is positive.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Aug 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggled in Q2, but Conditions will Improve Soon

Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.

That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.

Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Aug 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but it will Hike Soon, as Inflation Bites

Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.

Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.

Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Aug 2021 Mexico's Recovery Continues, as Spending on Services Ramps Up

Mexico's economy gathered speed in Q2, thanks to solid services activity and despite one-off shocks.

Manufacturing activity has stalled, due to global supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise soon.

Further good news from Chile's retail sector and manufacturing ended Q2 on a solid footing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2021 Political Risk Improves in the Andes

Chile — Political risk improves further

Peru — Castillo finally declared president-elect

Colombia — Duque presents a social-driven fiscal bill

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 July 2021 High Political Risk to Constrain the Commodity-Driven Rebound

Mexico — A pause despite an improving outlook

Colombia — Improving as social tensions ease

Chile — Political uncertainty prevails

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2021 Rising Commodity Prices are Helping LatAm's Economic Upturn

Continued improving global growth and its impact on the goods sector are particularly beneficial in LatAm, where the rapid recovery of commodity prices poses added upside risks as the economies gradually reopen.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 July 2021 Argentina's Recovery is Stalling, and the Second Half Looks Tough

Argentina's April economic activity report unsurprisingly showed that activity remained greatly depressed by lockdown rules—restrictions have been tightened significantly since late May—despite improving external conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 June 2021 Political Risk Remains High, Despite Improvement in Some Countries

Mexico — Mid-term election results boost the outlook

Chile — Political risk improves at the margin

Peru — Castillo claims victory, but Fujimuri still fights

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 June 2021 Pain in the Andes Driven by Political Uncertainty

Chile — Heightened economic and political uncertainty

Peru — Leftist Castillo close to win the election

Colombia — Social tensions easing at the margin

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 June 2021 Mexico and Peru, Elections, Markets, and the Recovery in a Covid World

This Sunday, all eyes will be focused on the final result of the midterm elections in Mexico and the presidential run-off in Peru.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 June 2021 Chile's Recovery Stalled in April, but Momentum will Improve Soon

Data released in recent days have confirmed that the Chilean economy struggled in early Q2, due to the worsening of the pandemic which triggered localised lockdowns and curfews. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 May 2021 Temporary Shocks Keep Mexican Inflation Disconcertingly Sticky

Inflation in Mexico is finally stabilizing and non-core inflation is edging lower, due to the fading of the Covid base effect, but the reopening of the economy and temporary shocks are keeping the headline very sticky.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 May 2021 Political Risk has Increased Substantially in the Andes

Colombia — Protests roiling the economy 

Chile — Independents wins the Constitutional vote

Peru — The presidential race remains wide open

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Apr 2021 A Contested and Very Noisy Second Presidential Round in Peru

Peru — The populist candidate is leading the polls
Colombia — Government presents an ambitious tax bill 
Brazil — The Budget saga seems to be over

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Apr 2021 Improving Economic Prospects Partially Offset Rising Political Risk

Brazil — Doing well, but downside risks prevail

Chile — An improving economic outlook, despite Covid

Peru — Political uncertainty sky-rocket

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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