Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?
Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO
Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports
Elevated underlying inflation pressures are forcing some central banks in LatAm to continue hiking...
...But recently-implemented measures by governments will allow policymakers to pause, soon.
Brazil’s COPOM hiked for the last time earlier this month; the inflation picture finally has improved.
A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...
...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.
The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.
Brazil — Increasing spending ahead of the election
Chile — Turbulent weeks ahead
Peru — Mr. Castillo's troubled first year
Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.
Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.
The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.
Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain.
The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data.
Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache.
Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail
Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro
Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears
Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist.
Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August.
Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable.
Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.
The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.
Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.
Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage
Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook
Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won
Brazil’s industrial output continues to gather speed, in line with improving survey data.
Our baseline is that production will continue to advance in Q2, but only trivially, as key drags bite.
Price pressures remain elevated in Peru, forcing the BCRP to hike rates boldly tomorrow.
Brazil’s recovery continued in Q1, due mostly to increased mobility and further fiscal support...
...But the near-term outlook for households’ real disposable income is challenging.
Increased spending on services, and high commodity prices, will allow the economy to stay afloat.
Food has been a key contributor to the inflation rebound in Q2, but pressures likely will ease in H2.
Core prices also will drive inflation down, as economies lose momentum.
Further monetary tightening and unconventional measures will add to the squeeze on inflation.
Inflation remains a headache for policymakers, but conditions likely will improve at the margin in Q3.
Food inflation remains a key upside risk, forcing governments to implement unconventional steps.
This will probably help in the near term, but will slow the disinflation trend next year.
Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.
Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.
Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.
Retail sales in Brazil rebounded in Q1, despite high inflation and tighter financial conditions...
...The reopening and further fiscal support have driven the recovery, but momentum will ease soon.
The real income squeeze and further interest rate hikes will hurt, but consumption won't collapse.
The COPOM increased rates by 100bp, as widely expected, but has tweaked its near-term plans...
...It has opened the door for a hike of “lower magnitude” in June; this will be the last of the cycle.
Inflation in Peru is running wild despite the implementation of subsidies; the BCRP will hike next week.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence