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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Slowing the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.
Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?
Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO
Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports
Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...
...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.
Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.
Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain.
The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data.
Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache.
In one line: The steady march at 50bp per month will continue.
Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail
Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro
Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears
Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.
The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.
Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.
In one line: The tightening will continue in the near term.
Brazil’s industrial output continues to gather speed, in line with improving survey data.
Our baseline is that production will continue to advance in Q2, but only trivially, as key drags bite.
Price pressures remain elevated in Peru, forcing the BCRP to hike rates boldly tomorrow.
In one line: The aggressive tightening continues as the inflation outlook deteriorates.
The COPOM increased rates by 100bp, as widely expected, but has tweaked its near-term plans...
...It has opened the door for a hike of “lower magnitude” in June; this will be the last of the cycle.
Inflation in Peru is running wild despite the implementation of subsidies; the BCRP will hike next week.
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