Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

bcrp

16 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Remains Resilient; the BCRP is Playing Safe for Now

  • Brazil’s recovery continued in H2, but risks are tilted to the downside, due chiefly to high interest rates.
  • Peru’s central bank increased interest rates last week, and left the door open to further tightening...
  • ...But it will move to the sidelines soon, as inflation is finally falling, and economic activity stutters.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor August's Inflation Data in Mexico and Chile Brought Relief to Policymakers

  • August’s inflation data in Mexico and Chile brought a sigh of relief to policymakers...
  • ...But core inflation remains sticky, overshooting their forecast; a slowing economy will bring it down in Q1.
  • We think Peru's BCRP wrapped up the tightening cycle last week; the BCCh will stay on hold this week. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, October, 2022

  • In one line: Pause signalled; further tightening requires stubbornly high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, September, 2022

  • In one line: Slowing the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is Yet to Peak, but in Peru the Downtrend has Started

  • Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
  • Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
  • Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2022 Peru's Economic Activity Rebounded in May, but it Likely will Stall Soon

Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...

...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.

Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 July 2022 LatAm CBs Likely will Continue to Hike in Q3, but Urgency will Ease

Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain. 

The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data. 

Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 July 2022 Currencies Hit by Global Recession Fears

Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail

Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro

Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 June 2022 Peru's BCRP to Hike Further in Q3, Colombia's Election is Too Call

Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.

The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.

Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 June 2022 Brazilian Industry Recovery Likely Continued in Q2, Despite Key Drags

Brazil’s industrial output continues to gather speed, in line with improving survey data.

Our baseline is that production will continue to advance in Q2, but only trivially, as key drags bite.

Price pressures remain elevated in Peru, forcing the BCRP to hike rates boldly tomorrow.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, May, 2022

  • In one line: The aggressive tightening continues as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 May 2022 The COPOM Hints a Modest Rate Hike in June, but Uncertainty is High

The COPOM increased rates by 100bp, as widely expected, but has tweaked its near-term plans...

...It has opened the door for a hike of “lower magnitude” in June; this will be the last of the cycle.

Inflation in Peru is running wild despite the implementation of subsidies; the BCRP will hike next week.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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