Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
banxico
- Industrial output in Mexico is edging lower, and the sector faces a cloudy domestic and external outlook.
- Tighter financial conditions and the weakening of the U.S. economy are key threats.
- Slowing manufacturing, falling inflation and the MXN rebound, will allow Banxico to hold rates in Q1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A bold hike, but with one dissenter; we expect a smaller hike next month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Banxico stuck to the script and increased the main rate by 75bp, to push inflation expectations down…
- …But the tightening cycle will probably be over next month, as better news in CPI inflation keeps coming.
- Data this week confirmed that the inflation peak was in Q3; disinflation will consolidate during H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Mexico probably peaked in Q3, and we expect it to edge down in the near term.
- Core inflation remains sticky, but not for long, as the economic recovery stutters and shocks finally fade.
- Brazil’s external accounts remain resilient, providing a cushion against uncertainty elsewhere.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican policymakers hiked rates in tandem with the Fed; more will be needed to restore prices stability.
- A divided BanRep increased the main rate less than expected; a gamble that will keep markets uneasy...
- ...The COP is under stress as investors worry about BanRep’s commitment to fighting inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
- ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
- Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
- ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
- Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
- Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
- The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
- The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
