Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

banxico

15 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexican Manufacturing is Slowing, Which will Make Banxico Uneasy

  • Industrial output in Mexico is edging lower, and the sector faces a cloudy domestic and external outlook.
  • Tighter financial conditions and the weakening of the U.S. economy are key threats.
  • Slowing manufacturing, falling inflation and the MXN rebound, will allow Banxico to hold rates in Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, October, 2022

  • In one line: A bold hike, but with one dissenter; we expect a smaller hike next month.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor Banxico's Tightening Cycle will End Soon

  • Banxico stuck to the script and increased the main rate by 75bp, to push inflation expectations down…
  • …But the tightening cycle will probably be over next month, as better news in CPI inflation keeps coming.
  • Data this week confirmed that the inflation peak was in Q3; disinflation will consolidate during H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is now Heading South, but Banxico won't Back Down

  • Headline inflation in Mexico probably peaked in Q3, and we expect it to edge down in the near term.
  • Core inflation remains sticky, but not for long, as the economic recovery stutters and shocks finally fade.
  • Brazil’s external accounts remain resilient, providing a cushion against uncertainty elsewhere.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Embattled Banxico and BanRep Face Pain from External Conditions

  • Mexican policymakers hiked rates in tandem with the Fed; more will be needed to restore prices stability.
  • A divided BanRep increased the main rate less than expected; a gamble that will keep markets uneasy...
  • ...The COP is under stress as investors worry about BanRep’s commitment to fighting inflation. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor July IGAE Showed a Resilient Mexican Economy, but Not for Long

  • Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
  • ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
  • Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor A Divided COPOM Ends the Hiking Cycle with a Hawkish Tone

  • Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
  • ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
  • Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Manufacturing Continues to Shoulder the Industrial Recovery

  • Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
  • Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
  • The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Economic Recovery is Stalling, and Banxico is Watching

The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Inflation is Falling Rapidly, but it is Sticky in Mexico

Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation. 

CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices. 

Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor June's Retail Sales Figures in Mexico are Raising Red Flags

June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.

Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.

Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Banxico Keeps Hiking Rates, but the Pace Likely will Ease Soon

Banxico hiked rates to a record 8.50%, but the pace of tightening will slow over the next few meetings.

A struggling economy and peaking inflation has allowed the Bank to dial-back its hawkish language.

The near-term policy outlook, however, is still uncertain, dependent on global conditions and the Fed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Headline Inflation in Mexico will Slow Gradually in H2, Despite July's Uptick

Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening... 

...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing. 

Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 July 2022 Inflation Remains a Headache for Banxico, but it Will Peak Soon

Inflationary pressures remain elevated in Mexico, but the headline rate will probably peak soon.

Banxico minutes emphasize that policymakers are determined to bring down inflation in H2.

Inflation in Colombia is rising rapidly; the near-term outlook remains challenging, due to strong demand.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2022 Mexico's Trade Deficit Sank Further, due Mainly to High Oil Prices

Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.

The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.

Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, June, 2022

  • In one line: Accelerating rate hikes, as external conditions continue to deteriorate.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 June 2022 Banxico Delivers a Record 75bp Rate Hike, and More is in the Pipeline

Banxico delivers a bold 75bp rate hike, and leaves the door wide open for more during the second half.

Inflation continued to rise in Q2, darkening the economic outlook over the next few months.

Banxico will hike more than the Board and AMLO would have allowed under normal conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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