Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.


15 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexican Manufacturing is Slowing, Which will Make Banxico Uneasy

  • Industrial output in Mexico is edging lower, and the sector faces a cloudy domestic and external outlook.
  • Tighter financial conditions and the weakening of the U.S. economy are key threats.
  • Slowing manufacturing, falling inflation and the MXN rebound, will allow Banxico to hold rates in Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, October, 2022

  • In one line: A bold hike, but with one dissenter; we expect a smaller hike next month.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor Banxico's Tightening Cycle will End Soon

  • Banxico stuck to the script and increased the main rate by 75bp, to push inflation expectations down…
  • …But the tightening cycle will probably be over next month, as better news in CPI inflation keeps coming.
  • Data this week confirmed that the inflation peak was in Q3; disinflation will consolidate during H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is now Heading South, but Banxico won't Back Down

  • Headline inflation in Mexico probably peaked in Q3, and we expect it to edge down in the near term.
  • Core inflation remains sticky, but not for long, as the economic recovery stutters and shocks finally fade.
  • Brazil’s external accounts remain resilient, providing a cushion against uncertainty elsewhere.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Embattled Banxico and BanRep Face Pain from External Conditions

  • Mexican policymakers hiked rates in tandem with the Fed; more will be needed to restore prices stability.
  • A divided BanRep increased the main rate less than expected; a gamble that will keep markets uneasy...
  • ...The COP is under stress as investors worry about BanRep’s commitment to fighting inflation. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor July IGAE Showed a Resilient Mexican Economy, but Not for Long

  • Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
  • ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
  • Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor A Divided COPOM Ends the Hiking Cycle with a Hawkish Tone

  • Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
  • ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
  • Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Manufacturing Continues to Shoulder the Industrial Recovery

  • Mexico’s industrial sector has remained relatively resilient, thanks chiefly to strength in manufacturing.
  • Construction and mining/oil remain in the doldrums; AMLO’s policies are holding them back.
  • The public finances remain the bright spot in Mexico, but next year's budget assumes too rosy an outlook.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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Keywords for: Latin America

Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence