Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

banrep

6 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor

  • Mexican Peso - Resilient, thanks to high rates
  • Colombian Peso - Hurt by a less hawkish BanRep
  • Brazilian Real - is an orthodox wave coming?

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile's Recession will Continue in Q4, Despite an Upbeat IMACEC

  • Chile’s economic recovery continues to go into reverse, despite August’s upbeat IMACEC.
  • The recession will continue in Q4, giving further arguments to the BCCh for keeping rates on hold.
  • The BanRep minutes reinforced its less-hawkish bias, but now is not the time for inflation complacency.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Embattled Banxico and BanRep Face Pain from External Conditions

  • Mexican policymakers hiked rates in tandem with the Fed; more will be needed to restore prices stability.
  • A divided BanRep increased the main rate less than expected; a gamble that will keep markets uneasy...
  • ...The COP is under stress as investors worry about BanRep’s commitment to fighting inflation. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, 2022

  • In one line: More tightening is coming, despite a smaller-than-expected hike.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Services Sector Continues to Fire on all Cylinders

  • Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
  • Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
  • Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Impressive Economic Growth in H1 will Peter Out, Soon

Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.

The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.

BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 July 2022 Colombia's Near-Term Outlook Has Worsened, the COP Feels the Pain

Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.

Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.

A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 June 2022 Left-wing Candidate Petro Wins in Colombia; What Next?

Gustavo Petro makes history after being elected Colombia's first leftist president.

A fragmented and divided Congress will cap his room for action; this will limit the market sell-off.

Mr. Petro will face tough challenges, included a deep- ly divided country, and worried business community.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 June 2022 Colombia's Inflation Remains a Headache, Despite Easing in May

Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.

Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 May 2022 LatAm will Rein-in Stubbornly High Inflation in the Second Half

Food has been a key contributor to the inflation rebound in Q2, but pressures likely will ease in H2.

Core prices also will drive inflation down, as economies lose momentum.

Further monetary tightening and unconventional measures will add to the squeeze on inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 May Inflation in Mexico and Colombia Continues to Rise Rapidly, for Now

April inflation in Mexico undershot expectations, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

The data brought modest comfort to policymakers, but the tightening cycle will continue this week.

In Colombia, April inflation surprised to the upside; BanRep will keep hiking, as it is far behind the curve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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