Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a full list of our Latin America Publications.

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Trend Growth

6 Jan 2021 Mexico's Manufacturing Struggles, Peru's Inflation is Comfortably Low

The December PMI surveys in Mexico continue to bolster our argument of a subpar economic recovery in the first half of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)5th Jan 2021 19:10Latin America

16 Dec 2020 Colombia Ends the Year Solidly, but Downside Risks for Q1 Emerge

Incoming activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been relatively strong, as economic activity resumes in key regions badly affected by the pandemic.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)15th Dec 2020 17:30Latin America

14 Dec 2020 Conditions are Settling into Place for Banxico to Cut Rates Soon

Data released last week strengthened the case for interest rate cuts in Mexico in the very near term. Our base case is that Banxico will cut by 25bp to 4.0% on Thursday, by a slim...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)13th Dec 2020 19:20Latin America

11 Dec 2020 Brazil's Central Bank is Becoming Uneasy About Inflation Prospects

Covid-induced spikes in some inflation components in Brazil, particularly food, are clouding the outlook for next year, and have turned the BCB's policy board--...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)10th Dec 2020 19:10Latin America

4 Dec 2020 GDP Growth will Rise in Brazil Next Year, but the First Half will be Tough

Data released yesterday confirm that Brazil's recovery emerged in the third quarter, supported mainly by rebounding capex growth and household consumption.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)3rd Dec 2020 19:10Latin America

2 Dec 2020 The Recovery in the Andes Continues, but the Virus is a Threat

Chile's IMACEC activity index for October, released yesterday, was well below market expectations, falling by 0.5% month-to-month, following four consecutive gains.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)1st Dec 2020 19:10Latin America

30 Nov 2020 Cyclical Improvement in the Job Markets in Brazil and Mexico, for Now

Data on Friday showed that the upward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into late Q3, but sectoral data and the gradual reopening of the economy point to better numbers...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:20Latin America

27 Nov 2020 Mexico's GDP Rebounded in Q3, but there is Still a Long Way to Go

Mexico's final estimate of third quarter GDP, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy rebounded in Q3 from the severe shock during lockdown in Q2, but economic output...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)26th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

24 Nov 2020 Argentina's Growth Rebounded in Q3, but from Very Depressed Levels

Argentina's economic recovery continues, but it will take some time to see output returning to pre-Covid levels, and note that the economy was suffering even before the...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)23rd Nov 2020 19:20Latin America

23 Nov 2020 The Pandemic is Stabilising in Most of LatAm, but Christmas is Approaching

The virus numbers have improved at the margin in most of the LatAm economies, except in Brazil, where the situation seems to be going from bad to worse.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)22nd Nov 2020 19:20Latin America

20 Nov 2020 Chile's Growth Rebounded in Q3, but did not Reverse all the Covid Hit

Data released this week confirmed that Q3 real GDP growth in the Andes rebounded sharply, on a sequential basis, as the region's economies gradually reopened.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)19th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

18 Nov 2020 Political Risk in Peru has Diminished, Giving Way to the Economic Recovery

Peru's political crisis has deteriorated the country's economic outlook, just as it was emerging gradually from the Corona shock.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)17th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

13 Nov 2020 Banxico Hold Rates, but it Hasn't Closed the Door to Further Easing

Mexican policymakers voted yesterday by four to one to keep the main rate at 4.25%, surprising the consensus forecast for a 25bp rate cut.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)12th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

10 Nov 2020 Sticky Inflation in Mexico, but Banxico will be Able to Cut Rates this Week

Headline inflation in Mexico remained sticky in October, and even breached the ceiling of Banxico's target range.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)9th Nov 2020 14:30Latin America

6 Nov 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Improving, Thanks to Better Fundamentals

Recently released data for Q3 in Brazil have surprised to the upside, but the outlook is darkening for late Q4 and early next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)5th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

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