Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a full list of our Latin America Publications.

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Structural Reform

24 July 2020 Inflation in Mexico Rose in July, but the Recession will Ease Pressures

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the upside in early Q3, but we still believe it will fall gradually in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)24th Jul 2020 00:10Latin America

6 Mar 2020 Brazil's Economic Recovery to Continue, if Covid-19 Allows it

Data released on Wednesday, along with the BCB's press release on Tuesday, supported our longstanding forecast of further rate cuts in Brazil in the very near term.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)6th Mar 2020 00:10Latin America

22 Nov 2019 No Respite in Sight for LatAm Currencies in the Near Term

Most LatAm currencies have been under pressure recently, with the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso breaking all-time lows versus the USD in recent weeks.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)22nd Nov 2019 00:20Latin America

30 Oct 2019 Copom to Cut Further, Politics Allows some Room for Manoeuvre

The news in Brazil on inflation and politics has been relatively positive in recent weeks, allowing policymakers to keep cutting interest rates to boost the stuttering recovery.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)30th Oct 2019 00:10Latin America

29 Oct 2019 The Mexican Economy Stagnated in Q3, Q4 Will be Slightly Better

While we were out, data released in Mexico added to our downbeat view of the economy in the near term, supporting our base case for interest rate cuts in the near future.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)29th Oct 2019 00:10Latin America

28 Oct 2019 Fernández Likely Won Argentina's Presidency, Brace for the Worst

Recent polls in Argentina suggest that Alberto Fernández, from the opposition platform Frente de Todos, has comfortably beaten Mauricio Macri, to become Argentina's president.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)28th Oct 2019 00:20Latin America

7 Oct 2019 Progress on Brazil's Fiscal Reform Resilient Remittances in Mexico

The Brazilian Senate concluded last week the first vote- of-two- on the pension reform.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)7th Oct 2019 00:20Latin America

19 Aug 2019 The Intensification of the Trade War Forces Rate Cuts in LatAm

While we were away, EM growth prospects and risk appetite deteriorated significantly, due mainly to rising geopolitical risks, weaker economic prospects for DM, and, in...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)19th Aug 2019 00:10Latin America

2 Aug 2019 Brazil's Copom Cuts Rates and Hints More Easing is in the Pipeline

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- Copom--voted unanimously on Wednesday to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 6.0%.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)2nd Aug 2019 00:10Latin America

29 July 2019 Solid External Accounts in Brazil, Mexico Flirting with Recession

Brazil's external accounts remain solid, despite the recent modest deterioration, making it easier for the country to withstand external and domestic risks.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)29th Jul 2019 00:10Latin America

24 July 2019 Copom to Cut Rates, Thanks to Low Inflation and Progress on Reforms

Data released yesterday in Brazil helped to lay the ground for interest rate cuts over the coming months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)24th Jul 2019 00:10Latin America

12 July 2019 Brazilian Fundamentals to Improve Further as Key Reform is in Sight

Brazil's political situation is steadily improving, with the latest events proving a step in the right direction.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)12th Jul 2019 00:10Latin America

21 June 2019 Will Brazilian Policymakers Open the Door for Rate Cuts Soon

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board, COPOM, left the Selic rate at 6.50% on Wednesday, as widely expected.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)21st Jun 2019 00:10Latin America

31 May 2019 The First GDP Contraction in Brazil Since 2016 Will it Improve

Brazil's economic recovery faltered in the first quarter and the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)31st May 2019 00:10Latin America

28 May 2019 Brazil's Inflation Remains Benign, Mexico's GDP Brings Bad News

Brazil's economic prospects continue to deteriorate rapidly, due to a combination of rising political uncertainty, the failure of the new government to advance on reforms, and...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)28th May 2019 00:10Latin America

26 April 2019 Disinflation Pauses in Brazil and Mexico, Central Banks Sidelined

Rising inflation is pressuring some LatAm central banks to take a cautious stance at a time when growth is subpar, particularly in the two biggest economies of the region.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)26th Apr 2019 00:10Latin America

8 April 2019 Andean Economies Hoping for a U.S.-China Trade Deal Soon

Fears of a Chinese hard landing have roiled financial and commodity markets this past year and have constrained the economic recovery of major raw material exporters in LatAm.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Apr 2019 00:20Latin America

27 March 2019 COPOM Minutes, Hard Data and Political Risks Point to Stable Rates

The COPOM meeting minutes, released yesterday, brought a balanced message aimed at curbing market pricing of further rate cuts, in our view.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)27th Mar 2019 00:10Latin America

22 March 2019 A Slightly Dovish but Prudent BCB as the New Boss Takes Over

At Wednesday's BCB monetary policy meeting, led for the first time by the new president, Roberto Campos Neto, the COPOM voted unanimously to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50%,...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)22nd Mar 2019 00:10Latin America

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