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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Slowing the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.
In one line: A bolder hike than expected likely marks the end of the tightening cycle.
The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.
Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows, just
Mexico — AMLO’s protectionist policies bite
Chile — A “rejection” of the new constitution is ahead
June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.
Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.
Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.
Brazil — A solid performance despite increased political risk
Colombia — Politics is becoming a drag
Chile — Political uncertainty will remain a key issue
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
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Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence