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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Resilient, but not for long.
In one line: Tighter financial conditions continue to bite.
In one line: Inflation and political uncertainty are weighing heavily on activity.
In one line: Inflation is now weighing on sales.
June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.
Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.
Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
In one line: The slowdown continues.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.
Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.
Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.
Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.
The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.
In one line: Undershooting expectations, but the near-term outlook has improved.
High inflation, political noise, and worsening external conditions are hitting Chile’s economic prospects.
It is no surprise that President Boric’s approval is on the floor; pessimism and dissatisfaction are rising.
The labour market remains solid, though, but survey data are consistent with employment growth slowing.
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Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence