Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a full list of our Latin America Publications.

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Quantitive Easing

21 Dec 2020 BanRep Hold Rates in Split Decision, Peru's Recovery Continues

Colombia's BanRep stuck to the script on Friday by leaving the policy rate on hold at 1.75%. This was the third consecutive meeting concluding with no change in rates, but...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)20th Dec 2020 19:20Latin America

14 Dec 2020 Conditions are Settling into Place for Banxico to Cut Rates Soon

Data released last week strengthened the case for interest rate cuts in Mexico in the very near term. Our base case is that Banxico will cut by 25bp to 4.0% on Thursday, by a slim...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)13th Dec 2020 19:20Latin America

11 Dec 2020 Brazil's Central Bank is Becoming Uneasy About Inflation Prospects

Covid-induced spikes in some inflation components in Brazil, particularly food, are clouding the outlook for next year, and have turned the BCB's policy board--...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)10th Dec 2020 19:10Latin America

2 Dec 2020 The Recovery in the Andes Continues, but the Virus is a Threat

Chile's IMACEC activity index for October, released yesterday, was well below market expectations, falling by 0.5% month-to-month, following four consecutive gains.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)1st Dec 2020 19:10Latin America

27 Nov 2020 Mexico's GDP Rebounded in Q3, but there is Still a Long Way to Go

Mexico's final estimate of third quarter GDP, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy rebounded in Q3 from the severe shock during lockdown in Q2, but economic output...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)26th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

25 Nov 2020 Temporary Divergent Inflation Fortunes in Brazil and Mexico

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, but it has taken divergent paths in November, allowing Banxico to ease even further over the next...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)24th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

13 Nov 2020 Banxico Hold Rates, but it Hasn't Closed the Door to Further Easing

Mexican policymakers voted yesterday by four to one to keep the main rate at 4.25%, surprising the consensus forecast for a 25bp rate cut.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)12th Nov 2020 19:10Latin America

10 Nov 2020 Sticky Inflation in Mexico, but Banxico will be Able to Cut Rates this Week

Headline inflation in Mexico remained sticky in October, and even breached the ceiling of Banxico's target range.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)9th Nov 2020 14:30Latin America

9 Nov 2020 Inflation Edged Higher in Brazil, but Remains at a Comfortable Rate

Inflation data for Brazil released on Friday surprised to the upside once again, driven by the effect of the reopening of the economy and food-related pressures as external demand...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Nov 2020 19:20Latin America

2 Nov 2020 The Covid Crisis in LatAm is Easing, but the Risk of a Second Wave is Real

While we were out, new Covid-19 cases continued to increase in Brazil and Colombia. The latest uptick in Mexico's cases seems to be peaking, though the data are not reliable,...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)1st Nov 2020 19:20Latin America

13 Oct 2020 Mexico's Industrial Recovery Continues, but Momentum is Slowing

Yesterday's Mexican industrial production report was downbeat for manufacturing, but revealed that the oil and public construction sectors are starting to show some signs of...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)12th Oct 2020 20:20Latin America

9 Oct 2020 Brazil's Retailers have Shrugged off the Corona Hit, but Threats Remain

Brazil's retail sector has shrugged off the Covid- related shock and leading indicators suggest that activity will continue to improve over the next few months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Oct 2020 20:10Latin America

30 Sept 2020 Mexico's External Accounts Continue to Improve, for Now

The improvement in Mexico's trade surplus since mid last year consolidated in Q2, albeit not for any welcome reason, as imports fell more sharply than exports on the back of...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)29th Sep 2020 20:10Latin America

29 Sept 2020 LatAm Central Banks have Closed the Door to Further Easing

Recent economic data in LatAm have alleviated concerns following weakness in the first half of the year, inflicted by Covid, and have even added some upside risks to our...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)28th Sep 2020 20:10Latin America

28 Sept 2020 COPOM's Minutes and the Inflation Report Point to Rates on Hold

Recent economic data in Brazil, along with recent messages from the BCB, have supported our view that interest rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)27th Sep 2020 20:20Latin America

23 Sept 2020 Banxico's Easing Cycle Likely will Begin to Slow Down Tomorrow

Banxico's board will meet tomorrow and we expect a 25bp rate cut to 4.25%, in line with the consensus.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)22nd Sep 2020 20:10Latin America

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