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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

October

PM Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, October, 2022

  • In one line: A bold hike, but with one dissenter; we expect a smaller hike next month.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, October, 2022

  • In one line: Disinflation continues, despite the overshoot to consensus.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Brazilian election, Runoff, October, 2022

  • In one line: Lula wins his third term in a very tight race; an uphill economic battle has just begun.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, October, 2022

  • In one line: Pause signalled; further tightening requires stubbornly high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Noise Improves at the Margin

  • Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
  • Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
  • Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Recovery is Petering Out in Colombia as Inflation Bites

  • Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
  • Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
  • The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Can President Bolsonaro Close the Gap on Lula in Coming Weeks

  • Leftist ex-president Lula remains the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential race, but the gap is narrowing.
  • Mr. Bolsonaro’s recent economic policies, including tax relief and increased fiscal aid, are paying-off, just.
  • The race is up for grabs, but we expect no radical change in economic policy, regardless of who wins.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Global Inflation Risks Have Spooked LatAm Markets

  • Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
  • Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
  • Chile — Political questions not abating

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor August's CPI Data in Brazil Are Good Enough to Prevent More Rate Hikes

  • The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
  • ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
  • Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is Yet to Peak, but in Peru the Downtrend has Started

  • Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
  • Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
  • Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile Resoundingly Rejects Mr. Boric's New Constitution; Now What?

  • Voters in Chile have overwhelmingly rejected a new constitution; now it is time for a moderate approach.
  • Inflation in Colombia is still running hot, due mostly to food prices and a robust domestic demand.
  • BanRep will continue to hike rates this year, but we still believe that inflation will start to fall in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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