- Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
- Mexico — A solid start to the year
- Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A robust start to the Q4, but H1 looks difficult.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resilient, but conditions have deteriorated recently.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprisingly resilient on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A bold hike, but with one dissenter; we expect a smaller hike next month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation continues, despite the overshoot to consensus.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Lula wins his third term in a very tight race; an uphill economic battle has just begun.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Rates on hold but policymakers remain vigilant.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Headline inflation is finally starting to soften.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Pause signalled; further tightening requires stubbornly high inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
- Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
- Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
- Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
- The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Leftist ex-president Lula remains the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential race, but the gap is narrowing.
- Mr. Bolsonaro’s recent economic policies, including tax relief and increased fiscal aid, are paying-off, just.
- The race is up for grabs, but we expect no radical change in economic policy, regardless of who wins.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hit by political noise and commodity prices
- Colombia — Orthodoxy is not enough to ease the pain
- Chile — Political questions not abating
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
- ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
- Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
- The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
- Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
- Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
