Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

November

14 Sept 2021 Argentina's Markets Rejoice as Ruling Party Loses Momentum

  • Argentina's economic outlook and markets improve as the ruling party falters in BA province vote.
  • Peru's BRCP increased interest rates last week; infla- tion rebounding on the back of the PEN sell-off.
  • The door is open to further data-dependent hikes; politics and global volatility will force the Board to act.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2021 A Modest Rebound as Political Risk Eases, but Tensions are Brewing

  • Colombian Peso — Pressures ease, for now
  • Argentinian Peso — A brewing crisis
  • Brazilian Real — Mr. Bolsonaro in the spotlight, again

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Aug 2021 Mexico's Recovery Continues, as Spending on Services Ramps Up

Mexico's economy gathered speed in Q2, thanks to solid services activity and despite one-off shocks.

Manufacturing activity has stalled, due to global supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise soon.

Further good news from Chile's retail sector and manufacturing ended Q2 on a solid footing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2021 Political Risk Improves in the Andes

Chile — Political risk improves further

Peru — Castillo finally declared president-elect

Colombia — Duque presents a social-driven fiscal bill

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 July 2021 Inflation Pressures are Easing in Argentina, but the Outlook is Grim

Argentina's inflation pressures continue to ease on a sequential basis, improving the ruling party's chances of performing well in the mid-term elections, slated for November.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 June 2021 Brazil's Industrial Sector will Gather Speed Soon; Banxico to Hike in Q4

Markets received negative news on the Brazilian industrial sector last week, but leading indicators suggest that this is not the start of a protracted downtrend. We expect good news soon, on the back of the gradual reopening of the economy, an improving vaccine rollout and better external conditions, supporting Brazil's key exports.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 May 2021 Rising Political Risk has the Potential to Dent Chile's Impressive Recovery

Data released yesterday confirmed that the Chileaneconomy emerged in Q1 from the initial Covid shock early last year, when the government introduced a nationwide curfew and selective quarantine. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 Apr 2021 Mexico's Recovery Hit a Wall in February, but it will Improve Soon

Yesterday, Mexico's INEGI reported a 0.3% month-to- month contraction in its February GDP proxy, the IGAE index, prompting us to mark down our Q1 GDP growth projection to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter, from 0.2%.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Apr 2021 Argentina's Inflation Continues to Rebound; the Outlook Remains Grim

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that Argentina's economic upturn continues. Leading indicators and sectoral data suggest that the economy has managed to withstand the effects of the second Covid wave.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Apr 2021 The Post-Easter Covid Surge is Evolving; Restrictions to Persist

The pandemic is still raging in LatAm, despite the relatively benign numbers in Brazil and Mexico in recent days, which are probably due to low testing over Easter, particularly in Mexico.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Mar 2021 Rates Set to Rise in Brazil, Argentina's Inflation Remains High

The prospect of a bold start to the tightening cycle this week in Brazil strengthened significantly yesterday,

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Mar 2021 Brazil's Retail Sales Slow Sharply on the Back of Stimulus Withdrawal

The January retail sales report in Brazil, released on Friday, confirmed the slowdown of private consumption on the back of the end of fiscal aid to households. Sales volumes fell 0.2% month-to-month in January, below the consensus, -0.1%. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Mar 2021 Business Surveys Point to Improving Manufacturing Activity in Q2

Brazil’s manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 in February, from a seven-month low of 56.5 in January, when activity was hit by the worst of the second Covid wave.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, November 2021

In one line: A marginal improvement in Q4, but the labour market remains under stress.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 February 2021 Argentina's Recovery is Losing Speed, and Inflation is Accelerating

Argentina's latest hard data suggest that activity ended Q4 on a relatively solid footing, as restrictions were loosened ahead of the holiday season. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Feb 2021 Mexico's Foreign Direct Investment Likely will Improve this Year

Mexico's Foreign Direct Investment downtrend hasn't reached the bottom yet, given the sharp deterioration
of the pandemic in recent months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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