- In one line: The recovery continues, but growth momentum is still easing sequentially.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, but core remains sticky, for now.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, but increased fiscal uncertainty remains a threat.
Headline inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside again in November, but the core remains sticky.
Softening demand, favourable base effects and high interest rates will push core inflation down soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Mexico fell for a second consecutive month in September, hit by still-high inflation.
- Tighter financial conditions are also helping to put the sector under renewed strain.
- Still-solid remittances from abroad, and a resilient labour market, will prevent a collapse, for now.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Industrial output in Mexico is edging lower, and the sector faces a cloudy domestic and external outlook.
- Tighter financial conditions and the weakening of the U.S. economy are key threats.
- Slowing manufacturing, falling inflation and the MXN rebound, will allow Banxico to hold rates in Q1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A bold hike, but with one dissenter; we expect a smaller hike next month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprisingly strong, but a downtrend will emerge soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Mexico probably peaked in Q3, and we expect it to edge down in the near term.
- Core inflation remains sticky, but not for long, as the economic recovery stutters and shocks finally fade.
- Brazil’s external accounts remain resilient, providing a cushion against uncertainty elsewhere.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Headline inflation is finally starting to soften.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Consumers’ spending in Mexico is under pressure, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
- Leading indicators point to a challenging Q4, but conditions will stabilize next year.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in August, but it probably will stall soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Weakening, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- August’s inflation data in Mexico and Chile brought a sigh of relief to policymakers...
- ...But core inflation remains sticky, overshooting their forecast; a slowing economy will bring it down in Q1.
- We think Peru's BCRP wrapped up the tightening cycle last week; the BCCh will stay on hold this week.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican Peso - Resilient, thanks to high rates
- Colombian Peso - Hurt by a less hawkish BanRep
- Brazilian Real - is an orthodox wave coming?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good start to Q3, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
